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Financial disaster in Europe
Posted: 02 October 2011 07:31 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 46 ]
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dougsmith - 20 September 2011 04:22 AM
citizenschallenge.pm - 19 September 2011 11:38 PM
dougsmith - 19 September 2011 04:26 AM

It’s easy to suggest we all go live off the land and make our own energy, but I doubt one person in a hundred thousand would actually be prepared to do it.

That wasn’t my suggestion.  Nor do I in the least think that is a solution.
~ ~ ~

What I’m thinking about more is ~ what is that’s actually driven human development these past millenium,
What in today’s situation has changed from the historic circumstance,
Can this change be addressed by following the same paradigm that was needed to conquer… tame this planet?

Well, I understand the sentiment,
but at the same time, what does it mean to change that paradigm? What are the specific recommendations?

Don’t know,
because i’d have to admit every solution I’ve entertained is realistically impossible to implement these days.
Thus my lament:  maybe we had too much too fast

The bitter truth being that
this doesn’t negate that following the same patterns and thinking and decision making strategies that have gotten us into
this consumptive {as in disease} mess, will only continue to push our global economic/environmental mess to the pinnacle of collapse.

{Them olden days American Indians predicted this obsessive over consumptive nature would lead to our ultimate destruction two hundred years ago. . .
. . . sorry at this point i’m fearing it’s down to watching the final chapters, driven by momentum, to there inevitable conclusion.

Remember that old WWII pilot lament: “The runway behind you don’t do you no good”
The runway, that is 70s,80s,90s, don’t do any of our pilots any good here in 2011,
Besides, our society’s aeroplane “pilots” are greed-intoxicated fools, so not much hope for taking advantage of what little runway is left.

Wish it weren’t so, but that’s what I’m left trying to come to grips with.

 

 

==========
{ps.  heya, missmac,
nice you see you’re still looking in on us}

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Posted: 02 October 2011 09:33 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 47 ]
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StephenLawrence - 01 October 2011 02:13 PM

The idea is take full advantage by buying!

The stockmarket is low when people are fearful about the future.

It’s a bit like betting on horses kkwan, it don’t matter which is most likely to win, it matters if the odds are good value or not, if you bet when the odds are good value, overall you’ll win.

Same with the stockmarket, the fear, when high enough, makes the price good value.

We can tell it’s high enough when the world and his wife is talking about the impending doom.

So that’s the reason to fill your boots.

Not necessarily so, i.e. to buy now.

The stock market is lower now because people are fearful of the future, but it will be even lower still when the actual crisis arrives, people panic, sell and get out of the market ASAP.

I don’t think buying stocks is like betting on horses at all. Of course, if one wants to gamble, one can imagine the stock market is a casino. That will eventually be financially disastrous.

If it’s high enough, is it not time to sell? Sell now, lock in the profits and wait for bargains.

OTOH, If one wants to buy, it all depends on timing. To maximize profit one must buy at the lowest possible and sell at the highest possible. So, when will the stock market bottom out? Is it at the lowest now? I don’t think so.

For instance, it was in early October 2008 when the sub-prime financial crisis triggered a massive sell-off of stocks.

From the wiki HERE

October 6–10: Worst week for the stock market in 75 years. The Dow Jones loses 22.1 percent, its worst week on record, down 40.3 percent since reaching a record high of 14,164.53 October 9, 2007.

It took one year for the stock market to decline from its record high to the tipping point and only then did it collapsed.

However, that was not the actual bottom….......it was in March 2009.

From the wiki HERE

By March 9, 2009, the Dow had fallen to 6440, a percentage decline exceeding the pace of the market’s fall during the Great Depression and a level which the index had last seen in 1996. On March 10, 2009, a countertrend bear market rally began, taking the Dow up to 8500 by May 6, 2009. Financial stocks were up more than 150% during this rally. By May 9, financial stocks had rallied more than 150% in just over two months.

So, the best time to buy would be after March 9, 2009 and not shortly after October 10, 2008.

As of now, the impending financial/economic crisis has not arrived yet. The recent gyrations only reflect the expectations of the bulls and the bears. There is no panic and massive sell-out now. It is dangerous to buy now because if the crisis arrives, say within this month or later, it will probably trigger a massive sell-out then and subsequently the market might only bottom out in about 5 to 6 months after that.

I’ll add, it’s not a question of whether it turns out so bad, it probably will, it’s a question of whether how bad it’s gonna turn out is “priced in”. If it is the market will go up regardless, that’s the way it works. The bookie buys on expected bad news and sells on expected good news, the punters do the opposite, the bookie generally makes money out of the punters.

Nothing can be “priced in” as of now. There is no visibility. We don’t know how bad things will go. We will only know when the market bottoms out and then and only then, will it go up regardless.

I am skeptical whether bookies can really make any money at all buying stocks like what you say. If it is so simple they should be managing investment funds instead and make Warren Buffet irrelevant.  grin

The stock market is essentially unpredictable. It is a complex chaotic system which is susceptible to human “irrational exuberance” creating bubbles and improbable “black swans” bursting the bubbles when one least expects it.

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Posted: 02 October 2011 10:40 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 48 ]
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kkwan - 02 October 2011 09:33 AM

 

Not necessarily so, i.e. to buy now.

True

The stock market is lower now because people are fearful of the future, but it will be even lower still when the actual crisis arrives, people panic, sell and get out of the market ASAP.

This is just not how it works. Overwhelmingly the people waiting for the bad news to actually happen will be buyers, because that’s what they were waiting for, same with the bears, the bears will take their profits because that was the reason for the trade.

I don’t think buying stocks is like betting on horses at all. Of course, if one wants to gamble, one can imagine the stock market is a casino. That will eventually be financially disastrous.

It is a casino in that those who bet with the odds on their side tend to win, “the house” in the casino analogy.

If it’s high enough, is it not time to sell? Sell now, lock in the profits and wait for bargains.

No, if fear is high enough it’s time to buy.

OTOH, If one wants to buy, it all depends on timing. To maximize profit one must buy at the lowest possible and sell at the highest possible. So, when will the stock market bottom out? Is it at the lowest now? I don’t think so.

This is unrealistic, you can’t try to work out the lowest point. Take gold kkwan, it was $280 dollors ten years ago and is $1700 now. Why was it so low? Fear. in this case fear that everything will be alright lol. Now why is it high? greed. Greed that currencies stocks and bonds will be worth less than gold lol. 

Now, the buyers at $500 weren’t wrong, they had the right idea but of course they couldn’t pick the bottom and shouldn’t have been trying to.

For instance, it was in early October 2008 when the sub-prime financial crisis triggered a massive sell-off of stocks.

From the wiki HERE

October 6–10: Worst week for the stock market in 75 years. The Dow Jones loses 22.1 percent, its worst week on record, down 40.3 percent since reaching a record high of 14,164.53 October 9, 2007.

It took one year for the stock market to decline from its record high to the tipping point and only then did it collapsed.

However, that was not the actual bottom….......it was in March 2009.

From the wiki HERE

By March 9, 2009, the Dow had fallen to 6440, a percentage decline exceeding the pace of the market’s fall during the Great Depression and a level which the index had last seen in 1996. On March 10, 2009, a countertrend bear market rally began, taking the Dow up to 8500 by May 6, 2009. Financial stocks were up more than 150% during this rally. By May 9, financial stocks had rallied more than 150% in just over two months.

So, the best time to buy would be after March 9, 2009 and not shortly after October 10, 2008.

The difference is many players in the market have seen this coming, it’s been much anticipated that we’re in a double dip recession for a long time. And again the world and his wife think we are in economic trouble, everybody knows we are.

The crisis you were speaking of was a suprise.

It’s suprise that moves markets, not expected events.

As of now, the impending financial/economic crisis has not arrived yet. The recent gyrations only reflect the expectations of the bulls and the bears. There is no panic and massive sell-out now.

And the expectation is that things will get worse, as far as the economy is concerned.

What percentage of people do you think believe the economy will get better????????????????????

It is dangerous to buy now because if the crisis arrives, say within this month or later, it will probably trigger a massive sell-out then and subsequently the market might only bottom out in about 5 to 6 months after that.

Probably not, probably if the crisis arises the market will go up just like probably if the invasion of Iraq had been even more messy the market would have still gone up.

 

Nothing can be “priced in” as of now.

Yes it can, if we double dip, and the economy contracts slightly over the next few years that’s probably priced in.

I am skeptical whether bookies can really make any money at all buying stocks like what you say. If it is so simple they should be managing investment funds instead and make Warren Buffet irrelevant.  grin

It’s not simple but Warren Buffet is a bookie and is filling his boots.

He unloads when people are greedy, he buys when people are fearful.

The stock market is essentially unpredictable. It is a complex chaotic system which is susceptible to human “irrational exuberance” creating bubbles and improbable “black swans” bursting the bubbles when one least expects it.

Yes, and the point is the bookies sell on the exuberance creating bubbles and buy on the fear creating troughs.

That’s how Warren Buffet does it.

Stephen

[ Edited: 02 October 2011 10:45 AM by StephenLawrence ]
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Posted: 02 October 2011 01:12 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 49 ]
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A few musings.

What worries me in an unrestricted capitalist system is the fact that aside from your selected skills or knowledge, one now must also become a banker, become an investor in the stock market (what an odd term), and in general become focused only on making money (another odd term). One cannot just make a living from his chosen vocation anymore, everyone is required to become an expert in finance.
If we are going to life in such a society, we need to change the school curricula. In addition to reading writing and arithmatic, we need to add a basic class in finance and the stockmarket.
When your job is taken by someone in China, the only option left is to invest in the company that has outsourced your job to begin with. But if one is on unemployment, how to get a hold of the finances to invest?  The whole system is upside down. The poor are forced to invest in the companies that shipped their jobs overseas.

And who came up with the idea that dividends and “passive” income should be taxed at a lower rate than on the salary you earn, investing your blood and sweat and tears?  Why should a guy, sitting in his comfy chair, smoking a cigar and getting paid for doing nothing, have to pay less on his income than anyone else? If we turned that system around in favor of the laborer, we’d probably have no financial hardship at all.

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Posted: 03 October 2011 09:15 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 50 ]
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Uh Oh, it’s worse than I thought, Europe is running out of beer!

http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2011/09/30/n_anderson_bailout_beer.cnnmoney/?iid=HP_Highlight

Stephen

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Posted: 03 October 2011 10:26 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 51 ]
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StephenLawrence - 02 October 2011 10:40 AM

This is just not how it works. Overwhelmingly the people waiting for the bad news to actually happen will be buyers, because that’s what they were waiting for, same with the bears, the bears will take their profits because that was the reason for the trade.

Under normal circumstances, there will be bulls and bears trading and generally the market is efficient but in the abnormal situation of a financial/economic crisis with loss of confidence in the system, panic is dominant and everyone wants to get out of the market ASAP. The market then is no longer efficient and this will trigger a deluge of selling leading to the collapse of the market.

It is a casino in that those who bet with the odds on their side tend to win, “the house” in the casino analogy.

It is an inappropriate analogy to compare a casino to the stock market.

In a casino, one is only betting against “the house”. The odds are known and can be computed accurately by the house with it having a slight edge in its favor. No other factors such as a financial crisis, an economic depression, political instability, war, natural disasters etc. influence the odds at all in a casino. The casino is a closed known system.

OTOH, when one buys into the market, one is competing with others who are also in the market, but one is not betting against the market per se because the market is not a physical or discrete entity like “the house” which is the casino. Also, all the factors listed in the above paragraph can and do influence the market. Thus, it is impossible to compute the odds with so many unknown factors influencing the market at any one time and more so if there is turmoil in the market. The market is an open unknown chaotic system.

No, if fear is high enough it’s time to buy.

Surely not when the stock is high, if and only if when it is very low, yet no one wants to buy it out of fear of further losses.

This is unrealistic, you can’t try to work out the lowest point. Take gold kkwan, it was $280 dollors ten years ago and is $1700 now. Why was it so low? Fear. in this case fear that everything will be alright lol. Now why is it high? greed. Greed that currencies stocks and bonds will be worth less than gold lol. 

Of course, one can’t work out the lowest or the highest point. It is possible though to work out when a stock is very under or over valued. Gold is something else. In times of uncertainty, gold is a safe haven or a second reserve currency to conserve value wrt falling stocks and/or devalued money. It is for wealth preservation rather than for greed. Gold is a sterile investment.

Now, the buyers at $500 weren’t wrong, they had the right idea but of course they couldn’t pick the bottom and shouldn’t have been trying to.

If the buyers at $500 kept their gold until now, they will be proven to have the foresight to buy gold then.

The crisis you were speaking of was a suprise.

No, it was not. It was predicted by some economists, but they were ignored.

From the wiki HERE

A number of heterodox economists predicted the crisis, with varying arguments. Dirk Bezemer in his research credits (with supporting argument and estimates of timing) 12 economists with predicting the crisis: Dean Baker (US), Wynne Godley (UK), Fred Harrison (UK), Michael Hudson (US), Eric Janszen (US), Steve Keen (Australia), Jakob Brøchner Madsen & Jens Kjaer Sørensen (Denmark), Kurt Richebächer (US), Nouriel Roubini (US), Peter Schiff (US), and Robert Shiller (US).

And it was “avoidable”. From this article at the NYT

The 2008 financial crisis was an “avoidable” disaster caused by widespread failures in government regulation, corporate mismanagement and heedless risk-taking by Wall Street, according to the conclusions of a federal inquiry.

You wrote:

It’s suprise that moves markets, not expected events.

Quite so, though the financial crisis in 2008 was not a surprise but a catastrophe.

And the expectation is that things will get worse, as far as the economy is concerned.

What percentage of people do you think believe the economy will get better????????????????????

Many expect it will get worse if Greece defaults. Some characterize it as the Lehman moment wrt the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008 triggering a loss of confidence in the global financial system followed by the collapse of the global stock market. It became a self fulfilling prophecy

Not a significant percentage of people believe that at this moment. Warren Buffet apparently believes there will be no double dip recession. He is buying (including buying back Berkshire Hathaway shares) and he has more than $43 billion of ready cash to spend.

Probably not, probably if the crisis arises the market will go up just like probably if the invasion of Iraq had been even more messy the market would have still gone up.

The invasion of Iraq was not a global financial/economic crisis.

Yes it can, if we double dip, and the economy contracts slightly over the next few years that’s probably priced in.

That is a very big if.

It’s not simple but Warren Buffet is a bookie and is filling his boots.

He unloads when people are greedy, he buys when people are fearful.

Not really. I think he will strongly protest if you call him a mere bookie. He is a value investor. 

From this article HERE

Did you know that a $10,000 investment in Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, the year Warren Buffett took control of it, would grow to be worth nearly $30 million by 2005?

Buffett’s Philosophy:

Warren Buffett descends from the Benjamin Graham school of value investing. Value investors look for securities with prices that are unjustifiably low based on their intrinsic worth. When discussing stocks, determining intrinsic value can be a bit tricky as there is no universally accepted way to obtain this figure. Most often intrinsic worth is estimated by analyzing a company’s fundamentals. Like bargain hunters, value investors seek products that are beneficial and of high quality but underpriced. In other words, the value investor searches for stocks that he or she believes are undervalued by the market. Like the bargain hunter, the value investor tries to find those items that are valuable but not recognized as such by the majority of other buyers.

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Posted: 03 October 2011 11:08 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 52 ]
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kkwan - 03 October 2011 10:26 AM

Under normal circumstances, there will be bulls and bears trading and generally the market is efficient but in the abnormal situation of a financial/economic crisis with loss of confidence in the system, panic is dominant and everyone wants to get out of the market ASAP. The market then is no longer efficient and this will trigger a deluge of selling leading to the collapse of the market.

But there is very little confidence right now and the market is being kept low by the fear of this sort of thing.

Surely not when the stock is high, if and only if when it is very low, yet no one wants to buy it out of fear of further losses.

But the fear is what is probably making the stock low.

Gold is something else. In times of uncertainty, gold is a safe haven or a second reserve currency to conserve value wrt falling stocks and/or devalued money. It is for wealth preservation rather than for greed. Gold is a sterile investment.

well buying it after it’s gone up 600 percent in 10 years is hardly likely to preserve peoples wealth. This is the irrational bubble causing exhuberance you’ve spoken off.

The crisis you were speaking of was a suprise.

No, it was not. It was predicted by some economists, but they were ignored.

From the wiki HERE

Ok, yes. The point is few believed them.

Now most think the economy is up the creek without a paddle.

Most believe the doom and gloom.

This is the point, we’ve become much less Polly Anna like, much more realistic about the economy.

That is good news for the stock market.

It’s suprise that moves markets, not expected events.

Quite so, though the financial crisis in 2008 was not a surprise but a catastrophe.

It was a surprise in a way the double dip is not.

Many expect it will get worse if Greece defaults. Some characterize it as the Lehman moment wrt the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008 triggering a loss of confidence in the global financial system followed by the collapse of the global stock market. It became a self fulfilling prophecy

I believe this is incredibly unlikely. Firstly nobody has any confidence that Greece can pay their debts, the price of the debt already reflects that.

Secondly if Greece default they would leave the Euro.

If they left the Euro the markets would breath a huge sigh of relief and go through the roof.

Not a significant percentage of people believe that at this moment. Warren Buffet apparently believes there will be no double dip recession. He is buying (including buying back Berkshire Hathaway shares) and he has more than $43 billion of ready cash to spend.

He isn’t buying because he doesn’t believe there will be a double dip recession, he is buying because he believes the risk reward ratio is good. If there is one it might well go up, if there isn’t one it will likely double as there will be a scramble for stock.

He is a value investor. 

That’s what I mean by bookie.

Stephen

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Posted: 03 October 2011 10:03 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 53 ]
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StephenLawrence - 03 October 2011 11:08 AM

But there is very little confidence right now and the market is being kept low by the fear of this sort of thing.

And there will be even less confidence influencing the market to be lower when the crisis comes.

But the fear is what is probably making the stock low.

Not just fear, but the realization that times are that bad.

well buying it after it’s gone up 600 percent in 10 years is hardly likely to preserve peoples wealth. This is the irrational bubble causing exhuberance you’ve spoken off.

That and/or buying US Treasuries with miniscule yields or keeping cash is still better than putting one’s money in the stock market and watching stock values decline day by day with no end in sight (even though it is only a paper loss if one holds and do not sell) which is psychologically depressing.

Ok, yes. The point is few believed them.

Now most think the economy is up the creek without a paddle.

Most believe the doom and gloom.

This is the point, we’ve become much less Polly Anna like, much more realistic about the economy.

That is good news for the stock market.

How is it good news for the stock market? It is spirally down, down, down….......cheese

It was a surprise in a way the double dip is not.

The double dip may turn out to be less or much worse than anticipated. That would be a surprise.

I believe this is incredibly unlikely. Firstly nobody has any confidence that Greece can pay their debts, the price of the debt already reflects that.

Secondly if Greece default they would leave the Euro.

If they left the Euro the markets would breath a huge sigh of relief and go through the roof.

From this article at MSN HERE

Exactly how far the damage would go depends on to which degree that bond markets would punish the bonds of Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain, which, along with Greece, make up the so-called PIIGS group. The exposure of U.S. banks to Greek debt alone is relatively small. But U.S. banks have $670 billion in total exposure to the PIIGS group.

And it depends on whether a default would force Greece out of the euro. That’s not an inevitable result.

And this article at the BBC

However, without the further bailout money, Greece may have little choice but to stop repaying its debts - something that would put severe pressure on the eurozone, damage European bank finances and possibly have a serious knock-on effect on the world economy.

Meanwhile, emergency talks over the future of Franco-Belgian bank Dexia added to market fears that a Greek default could spark a banking crisis

Also, this article at the Guardian HERE

European stock markets fell sharply after France and Germany joined Spain and Italy on the sick list of manufacturing nations, undermined by weak demand and a lack of business and consumer confidence. Measures of manufacturing activity in China and the far east also showed a weakness that unnerved investors, sending the FTSE 100 back below the 5,000 mark at one stage and leaving all the major European stock markets in the red.

I don’t see how the stock market can react positively to all that. LOL

He isn’t buying because he doesn’t believe there will be a double dip recession, he is buying because he believes the risk reward ratio is good. If there is one it might well go up, if there isn’t one it will likely double as there will be a scramble for stock.

With so much cash in hand, he can afford to take some risks by buying what he considers as good value stocks (including his own company). OTOH, it could be an exercise to reassure the market during this turbulent times.

That’s what I mean by bookie.

Bookie aka bookmaker: “A person whose job is to take bets, calculate odds and pay out winnings”

Surely an investor is not synonymous to that at all. You are being Humpty Dumptyish.  grin

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Posted: 03 October 2011 10:31 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 54 ]
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kkwan - 03 October 2011 10:03 PM
StephenLawrence - 03 October 2011 11:08 AM

But there is very little confidence right now and the market is being kept low by the fear of this sort of thing.

And there will be even less confidence influencing the market to be lower when the crisis comes.

Well, we’ll see Kkwan, I’m sure there are good arguments on both sides but as someone who did this for a living we knew it was dangerous to be short when everybody was expecting a bad future and new it was dangerous to be long when everything in the garden looked rosy. I know you shouldn’t break rules like that without good reason. You might say it’s different this time but the trouble is, it always looks different this time. Historically the people who got rich got rich by buying in these sorts of times.

An old expression is a bull market climbs a wall of worry, the point is you need the worry to keep people underinvested so that they find themselves needing to buy as it rises.

Now what you’re saying is the crisis will come, but who knows? The economy might surprise us and grow by 3% next year.

Also you say there will be less confidence, ok but at the bottom of this is supply and demand, will there be more demand or supply? Well if people have positioned themselves for the worst they have no reason to sell when it happens, which is why usually the market goes up on expected bad news.

Anyhow we’ll see, hope you’re wrong because this really is a very dangerous situation indeed.

Best,

Stephen

[ Edited: 03 October 2011 10:46 PM by StephenLawrence ]
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Posted: 03 October 2011 10:40 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 55 ]
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kkwan - 03 October 2011 10:03 PM


Bookie aka bookmaker: “A person whose job is to take bets, calculate odds and pay out winnings”

Surely an investor is not synonymous to that at all. You are being Humpty Dumptyish.  grin

You need to look only at the similarity I’m talking about not take it that I think a value investor is exactly like a bookie in every respect LOL.

A punter thinks England is going to win the world cup and places a bet with the bookie at 3 to 1.

The bookie is happy to take the bet because it’s a value bet, the bookie knows that although England might win, with all the other great teams in the competition there chances are less than 1 in 3.

It is similar in this respect.

stephen

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Posted: 04 October 2011 06:51 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 56 ]
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StephenLawrence - 03 October 2011 10:31 PM

Anyhow we’ll see, hope you’re wrong because this really is a very dangerous situation indeed.

Nobody wants another crisis. I would be glad to be proven wrong.

However, the financial situation in Europe (with Greece as it is) is in unknown territory.

From this article HERE

Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC, echoed mindfulmoney’s recent discussion over the practical difficulties of untangling Greece (and other potential candidates for euro departure) from the single currency.  He told the FT:  “A euro break-up would be a disaster, threatening another Great Depression.” He added:  “Disentangling the millions of contracts and cross-border assets would be a Herculean task that would surely threaten the fabric of the European financial system”.

Let’s hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst.

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Posted: 04 October 2011 07:11 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 57 ]
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StephenLawrence - 03 October 2011 10:40 PM

You need to look only at the similarity I’m talking about not take it that I think a value investor is exactly like a bookie in every respect LOL.

A punter thinks England is going to win the world cup and places a bet with the bookie at 3 to 1.

The bookie is happy to take the bet because it’s a value bet, the bookie knows that although England might win, with all the other great teams in the competition there chances are less than 1 in 3.

It is similar in this respect.

Point taken. There are some similarities wrt assessment of risk.

From this website HERE

Definition of investor:

An individual who commits money to investment products with the expectation of financial return. Generally, the primary concern of an investor is to minimize risk while maximizing return,

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Posted: 08 November 2011 07:31 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 58 ]
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kkwan - 03 October 2011 10:26 AM
StephenLawrence - 02 October 2011 10:40 AM

It’s not simple but Warren Buffet is a bookie and is filling his boots.

He unloads when people are greedy, he buys when people are fearful.

Not really. I think he will strongly protest if you call him a mere bookie. He is a value investor. 

Well, at the very least he is filling his boots: http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/07/markets/buffett_stocks/index.htm?iid=HP_River

Buffett continued to be bullish on stocks in comments during the period. On Aug. 15, he told PBS interviewer Charlie Rose that on the first day of trading after the U.S. credit downgrade—as the S&P 500 plunged nearly 7%—Berkshire made its largest single-day stock purchases of the year to date. And he said the $7 billion Berkshire had invested to that point of the year was at least $1 billion more than it had ever purchased in a year.

“It’s like buying on sale,” he said in that interview.

Stephen

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Posted: 08 November 2011 01:47 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 59 ]
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StephenLawrence - 08 November 2011 07:31 AM
kkwan - 03 October 2011 10:26 AM
StephenLawrence - 02 October 2011 10:40 AM

It’s not simple but Warren Buffet is a bookie and is filling his boots.

He unloads when people are greedy, he buys when people are fearful.

Not really. I think he will strongly protest if you call him a mere bookie. He is a value investor. 

Well, at the very least he is filling his boots: http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/07/markets/buffett_stocks/index.htm?iid=HP_River

Buffett continued to be bullish on stocks in comments during the period. On Aug. 15, he told PBS interviewer Charlie Rose that on the first day of trading after the U.S. credit downgrade—as the S&P 500 plunged nearly 7%—Berkshire made its largest single-day stock purchases of the year to date. And he said the $7 billion Berkshire had invested to that point of the year was at least $1 billion more than it had ever purchased in a year.

“It’s like buying on sale,” he said in that interview.

Stephen

There is nothing wrong with taking advantage of market conditions. That is free enterprise. At least he is willing to pay his fair share of the capital gains, or so he says.

It’s the corporate raiders which are the pirates, they will buy a company under stress, dismantle it, sell the profitable sections and hide the profits from taxation. IMO, that is a crime against society.

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Posted: 17 November 2011 06:40 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 60 ]
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StephenLawrence - 08 November 2011 07:31 AM

Well, at the very least he is filling his boots: http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/07/markets/buffett_stocks/index.htm?iid=HP_River

Buffett continued to be bullish on stocks in comments during the period. On Aug. 15, he told PBS interviewer Charlie Rose that on the first day of trading after the U.S. credit downgrade—as the S&P 500 plunged nearly 7%—Berkshire made its largest single-day stock purchases of the year to date. And he said the $7 billion Berkshire had invested to that point of the year was at least $1 billion more than it had ever purchased in a year.

“It’s like buying on sale,” he said in that interview.

More buying HERE

Buffett takes big stake in IBM; also buys Intel, CVS

The investment in IBM represents the most the Omaha, Neb., conglomerate has paid for a minority stake in a publicly traded company. IBM appears to be the second-largest equity holding in Berkshire’s stock portfolio, behind only a $13.6bn position in Coca-Cola.

Berkshire has an ever-growing cash hoard that Buffett must deploy in stocks and businesses in order to meet his goal of increasing the value of his company faster than the broad US stock market. The purchase, along with the new stake in Intel, gives Berkshire a hand in 11 of the 30 companies making up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Isn’t it nice to have a humongous hoard of ready cash to invest to make more money?  grin

However, the financial situation in the euro zone is darkening.

From this article at the NYT

Words of a Euro Doomsayer Have New Resonance

Mr. Connolly has been warning for years that Europe was heading for disaster. As an E.U. economist in the early 1990s, he helped design the common currency’s framework, but then he was dismissed after he expressed turncoat views.

Now, as the European debt crisis that began in Greece threatens to engulf even France along with Italy and Spain, Mr. Connolly’s longstanding proposition that the foisting of a common currency upon so many disparate nations would end in ruin is getting a much wider hearing.

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