1 of 2
1
Global warming ? Climate change? Global cooling?
Posted: 22 March 2013 07:17 AM   [ Ignore ]
Member
RankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  150
Joined  2012-07-25

What could be the cause for sixteen years of no increase in global temperatures but an increase in carbon dioxide ? Are the climate models the problem or is there another cause ?

Profile
 
 
Posted: 22 March 2013 07:25 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
Administrator
Avatar
RankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  15305
Joined  2006-02-14

HERE‘s the most recent chart:

Fig.A2.gif

I don’t think it could accurately be described as “sixteen years of no increase in global temperatures”. What it is is random motion around a general, strong statistical uptrend.

 Signature 

Doug

-:- -:—:- -:—:- -:—:- -:—:- -:—:-

El sueño de la razón produce monstruos

Profile
 
 
Posted: 23 March 2013 04:08 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
Sr. Member
RankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  2011
Joined  2007-08-09
sine dues - 22 March 2013 07:17 AM

What could be the cause for sixteen years of no increase in global temperatures but an increase in carbon dioxide ? Are the climate models the problem or is there another cause ?

Climate is a function of several factors over many years. Temperatures for any given years are subject to the vagaries of statistical probability.

There is no problem with the theory, only with the question, which misapprehends climate change. The question is like asking what caused heads to come up three times in a row in a series of coin flips.

 Signature 

I cannot in good conscience support CFI under the current leadership. I am here in dissent and in support of a Humanism that honors and respects everyone.

Profile
 
 
Posted: 23 March 2013 07:11 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
Sr. Member
Avatar
RankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  4626
Joined  2007-10-05
sine dues - 22 March 2013 07:17 AM

What could be the cause for sixteen years of no increase in global temperatures but an increase in carbon dioxide ? Are the climate models the problem or is there another cause ?

As mentioned already, the climate models are fine, the question is the problem. The climate denial think tanks have done an excellent job of spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt, as they planned all along. In this case they cherry picked 1998, a statistical outlier, as their baseline for saying the climate is no longer warming. The fact is the first decade of the 21st Century was the warmest on record by a good margin. Until that became widely known the climate change deniers were saying the Earth was cooling. They changed their meme when it became impossible to explain how the Earth was cooling when we kept setting temperature records year after year. I wonder what they’ll be saying in 10 years when the U.S. Midwest record heat wave of 2012 becomes the norm.

 Signature 

“In the beginning, God created the universe. This has made many people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move.”
Douglas Adams, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe

Profile
 
 
Posted: 23 March 2013 09:37 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]
Sr. Member
Avatar
RankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  2018
Joined  2007-04-26

At some point they will admit that the climate is warming because it will be too hard to deny any longer. At that point they wil switch their message to their current backup plan… that the earth is warming but it has nothing to do with man, its just part of a natural cyclical process that the climate has gone through in the past. Unfortunately its a lot easier to perpetuate that concept since its harder to disprove with 100% certainty.

 Signature 

For every complex problem there is a solution that is simple, obvious,.... and just plain wrong

Profile
 
 
Posted: 23 March 2013 10:54 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]
Sr. Member
Avatar
RankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  3799
Joined  2010-08-15
sine dues - 22 March 2013 07:17 AM

What could be the cause for sixteen years of no increase in global temperatures but an increase in carbon dioxide ? Are the climate models the problem or is there another cause ?

What make you claim “global temperatures” have seen no global increase?

Are you claiming the physics behind atmospheric greenhouse gases is something that can be disregarded?

-

PS. Here’s some excellent educational information regarding our warming planet.

From SkepticalScience.com

David Rose Hides the Rise in Global Warming

Posted on 19 March 2013 by dana1981, John Russell, John Mason

Watts Interview – Denial and Reality Mix like Oil and Water

Posted on 14 March 2013 by dana1981

Drost, Karoly, and Braganza Find Human Fingerprints in Global Warming

Posted on 11 March 2013 by dana1981

 Signature 

How many times do lies need to be exposed
before we have permission to trash them?

Profile
 
 
Posted: 23 March 2013 09:28 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]
Sr. Member
RankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  2245
Joined  2012-10-27
sine dues - 22 March 2013 07:17 AM

What could be the cause for sixteen years of no increase in global temperatures but an increase in carbon dioxide ? Are the climate models the problem or is there another cause ?

There are 6 billion human beings on earth, every one of them burning something.  You figure it out.

....

Profile
 
 
Posted: 23 March 2013 10:34 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]
Sr. Member
Avatar
RankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  3799
Joined  2010-08-15
sine dues - 22 March 2013 07:17 AM

What could be the cause for sixteen years of no increase in global temperatures but an increase in carbon dioxide ? Are the climate models the problem or is there another cause ?

This is simply untrue; the facts speak from themselves:

Ten Charts That Make Clear The Planet Just Keeps Warming
By Joe Romm on Oct 15, 2012 at 6:46 pm
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/15/1014151/ten-charts-that-make-clear-the-planet-just-keeps-warming/

http://mediamatters.org/research/2012/10/15/fox-falls-for-tabloid-science/190630

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-temps.html

http://www.skepticalscience.com/david-rose-hides-rise-global-warming.html
David Rose Hides the Rise in Global Warming

Posted on 19 March 2013 by dana1981, John Russell, John Mason


It seems like we have to debunk this myth on a weekly basis, as it keeps popping up in the mainstream media.  So, yet again, this is global warming:

The overall warming of the Earth over the past 15 years was larger than over the previous 15 years.  Global warming has not stopped; it’s not even slowed down.

A leading purveyor of the myth to the contrary is journalist David Rose, of the British tabloid The Mail on Sunday and Vanity Fair.  We’ve previously pre-bunked and debunked his articles on the subject, but he appears oblivious to any criticism of his work.

“No, the world ISN’T getting warmer (as you may have noticed),” wrongly begins an article published in last week’s Mail on Sunday.  Try saying ‘there’s no noticeable warming’ to the Australians and Americans who suffered the greatest run of heat waves ever recorded; or the British or New Yorkers who were flooded out of their homes during 2012.

 Signature 

How many times do lies need to be exposed
before we have permission to trash them?

Profile
 
 
Posted: 26 March 2013 06:50 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 8 ]
Sr. Member
Avatar
RankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  4626
Joined  2007-10-05

New Research Confirms Global Warming Has Accelerated

A new study of ocean warming has just been published in Geophysical Research Letters by Balmaseda, Trenberth, and Källén (2013).  There are several important conclusions which can be drawn from this paper.

Completely contrary to the popular contrarian myth, global warming has accelerated, with more overall global warming in the past 15 years than the prior 15 years.  This is because about 90% of overall global warming goes into heating the oceans, and the oceans have been warming dramatically.

Read the article completely. As always, the AGW deniers cherry pick evidence and ignore the total picture when they say the rate of warming has slowed.

 Signature 

“In the beginning, God created the universe. This has made many people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move.”
Douglas Adams, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe

Profile
 
 
Posted: 26 March 2013 07:22 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 9 ]
Sr. Member
Avatar
RankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  3799
Joined  2010-08-15
DarronS - 26 March 2013 06:50 AM

New Research Confirms Global Warming Has Accelerated

A new study of ocean warming has just been published in Geophysical Research Letters by Balmaseda, Trenberth, and Källén (2013).  There are several important conclusions which can be drawn from this paper.

Completely contrary to the popular contrarian myth, global warming has accelerated, with more overall global warming in the past 15 years than the prior 15 years.  This is because about 90% of overall global warming goes into heating the oceans, and the oceans have been warming dramatically.

Read the article completely. As always, the AGW deniers cherry pick evidence and ignore the total picture when they say the rate of warming has slowed.

BTK13Fig1.jpg
Figure 1: Ocean Heat Content from 0 to 300 meters (grey), 700 m (blue), and total depth (violet) from ORAS4, as represented by its 5 ensemble members. The time series show monthly anomalies smoothed with a 12-month running mean, with respect to the 1958–1965 base period. Hatching extends over the range of the ensemble members and hence the spread gives a measure of the uncertainty as represented by ORAS4 (which does not cover all sources of uncertainty). The vertical colored bars indicate a two year interval following the volcanic eruptions with a 6 month lead (owing to the 12-month running mean), and the 1997–98 El Niño event again with 6 months on either side. On lower right, the linear slope for a set of global heating rates (W/m2) is given.

 Signature 

How many times do lies need to be exposed
before we have permission to trash them?

Profile
 
 
Posted: 26 March 2013 07:28 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 10 ]
Sr. Member
Avatar
RankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  4626
Joined  2007-10-05

Distilled to its essence, what this means is the next El Niño is going to cause substantial air temperature increases. Summer 2012 will not be the hottest on record in the U.S. for long.

 Signature 

“In the beginning, God created the universe. This has made many people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move.”
Douglas Adams, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe

Profile
 
 
Posted: 26 March 2013 07:34 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 11 ]
Sr. Member
Avatar
RankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  3799
Joined  2010-08-15

sd reminds me of a certain sp over at SkepticForum, makes me want to share a recent post from over there:

sp/d - you continue to amaze with your ability to compartmentalize and isolate one issue from another. 

DIVIDE AND CONQUER!
right,
that’s the strategy
Manufacturing Doubt as opposed to struggling towards learning and understanding. 
~ ~ ~

You know you’re playing with quote mining and careful editing - that’s the stuff of fiction writers and NOT of the scientific endeavor.  Which is in a struggle with all the unknowns and confusion of real biosphere evidence… trying to extract some genuine usable knowledge.  To youz all that’s just a joke, to be derided and scorned - to me your attitude is a tragedy.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

sp/d, {do} you practice that denialist’s art of compartmentalizing and pretending one matter/factor can be isolated from another.  Does the term holistic mean anything to you?  Biosphere?  Web of existence?

The AGW consensus is NOT formed by scientists.
The AGW consensus IS compelled by the evidence.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
One Directional Skepticism Equals Denial

http://www.skepticforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=40&t=19847&start=40

 Signature 

How many times do lies need to be exposed
before we have permission to trash them?

Profile
 
 
Posted: 27 March 2013 10:20 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 12 ]
Member
RankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  150
Joined  2012-07-25

The leopard will not change his spots….
pulling his tail is great sport….
The Warmists will continue to scream long after the ICE AGE has cooled the planet…..you see colder temps mean that the planet is warming…...
Give it up
You will be bigger people when you admit your errors…..

Profile
 
 
Posted: 27 March 2013 10:24 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 13 ]
Administrator
Avatar
RankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  15305
Joined  2006-02-14
sine dues - 27 March 2013 10:20 AM

The leopard will not change his spots….
pulling his tail is great sport….
The Warmists will continue to scream long after the ICE AGE has cooled the planet…..you see colder temps mean that the planet is warming…...
Give it up
You will be bigger people when you admit your errors…..

Trolling is against the rules. Acting contrary to stated rules may get you banned. Thanks for understanding.

 Signature 

Doug

-:- -:—:- -:—:- -:—:- -:—:- -:—:-

El sueño de la razón produce monstruos

Profile
 
 
Posted: 27 March 2013 10:26 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 14 ]
Sr. Member
Avatar
RankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  4626
Joined  2007-10-05
sine dues - 27 March 2013 10:20 AM

The leopard will not change his spots….
pulling his tail is great sport….
The Warmists will continue to scream long after the ICE AGE has cooled the planet…..you see colder temps mean that the planet is warming…...
Give it up
You will be bigger people when you admit your errors…..

So your original question was not a request for information, but rather slyly hidden bait. You are ignoring reality. Begone, troll.

Edit: Doug beat me to it, and he has the power of the blue font.

 Signature 

“In the beginning, God created the universe. This has made many people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move.”
Douglas Adams, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe

Profile
 
 
Posted: 28 March 2013 09:02 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 15 ]
Sr. Member
Avatar
RankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRankRank
Total Posts:  2891
Joined  2011-08-15

I also noticed that sine dues failed to take into account the effect AGW has on animal life and not just extinction due to rapid climate change. Animals are evolving to accommodate to the shift in temperatures, e.g. The European black cap is now migrating into new areas with colder climates, such as England where they didn’t previously exist. Mating and migratory patterns are being altered as well as nesting sites and food sources as plant life disappears or alters to produce tougher seeds. Yet another example of proof that AGW is a fact.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/06/060608-global-warming.html


Cap’t Jack

 Signature 

One good schoolmaster is of more use than a hundred priests.

Thomas Paine

Profile
 
 
   
1 of 2
1