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Korea
Posted: 03 April 2013 11:08 AM   [ Ignore ]
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So, the Armistice is off, and the Korean war is back on, so says the great grandson of our great leader, Kim Jong-Un.  Well, Kim Jong-Un is proving to be as bad as his father, how awful.  So, now the choice is either wait out Kim while demonstrating some military exercises, and so Kim’s army builds up more armaments and nukes.  Or, attack to prevent the buildup, shut-down the nuclear plant and start a war with the world’s fourth largest army that will get so many killed.

You see, this is one of those times when you wish for a nice smooth coup-d’ètat, bottom-up… where o’ where are the democrats in N. Korea?

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Posted: 03 April 2013 01:08 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
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Problem is we attack, China counter-attacks.

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Posted: 03 April 2013 08:44 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
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IDK, North Korea has refused to honor the armistice several times before - so it’s likely we are just going to see more posing from Pyongyang.

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Posted: 04 April 2013 04:17 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
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IDK, North Korea has refused to honor the armistice several times before - so it’s likely we are just going to see more posing from Pyongyang.

Only this time the threat is nuclear and they made us blink. Hagen has sent interceptor missles to Guam just in case. The problem here is that Kim may paint himself into a corner and respond to the war games with more than posturing to placate his military advisors. If that happens we have to respond militarily as economic sanctions won’t be enough to assuage the hawks here. Let’s hope that this doesn’t escalate into a conflict; we’ve sacrificed enough money and blood on the last one.


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Posted: 04 April 2013 05:27 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]
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My bad, it’s Hagel not Hagen for what it’s worth.

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Posted: 04 April 2013 08:52 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]
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If this keeps escalating, it will go badly.  Mostly for North Korea.  The DPRK has no friends anymore.  At least, none that are worth a damn.  Many think the Chinese will step in to help them, but that’s unlikely.  Read the press releases and news coming out of China.  [1]  The Chinese hate the North Koreans (and vice versa) and are tired of being embarrassed and having their reputation dragged through the mud every time the DPRK’s leadership starts grandstanding. The DPRK’s constant hunt for and threatening with nukes just infuriates them further.  Hell, the Chinese would side against the DPRK just for economics’ sake.  Who would you side with?  The 1st, 3rd, and 15th largest economies in the world (the US, Japan, and South Korea respectively) or one of the world’s smallest and crappiest economies?  The Chinese would probably just sit on their border and try to keep out the thousands of North Koreans that would inevitably stream across the border.

If this does turn into a war, I don’t think anyone will fight into an armistice like last time.  Everyone is sick to death of North Korea and their bullshit.  On the bright side, the DPRK will lose.  Of course, it won’t go down without a fight.  A long, nasty, brutal fight.  Seoul will get shelled to hell and back, it will cost tens of thousands of lives (at least), and it will depress South Korea’s economy for decades as they struggle to assimilate and update their woefully backward and uneducated neighbors.  And Grodd only knows what other fallout there will be.  The good news is, the DPRK’s leadership likely knows all this as well.

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Posted: 04 April 2013 09:40 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]
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In a ground war the Nk’s would be crushed. Even though they have a million man army outnumbering ours alone, their armor and artillery is crappy compared to the US military equipment. Their tanks are throw backs from the early 90’s (T55’s) and much of their artillery is locally made. In an all out assault our M2s will destroy their armor in a matter of days, drones and A10’s would clear the field of their infantry. Our Raptors would shoot down their Migs, then a few cruise missles to take out communications and military installations by surgical strikes and the war is over. We wouldn’t even need the B2 bombers. They’re just there for the fright effect anyway. But you’re right about the economy of South Korea DM, assuming the Chinese don’t step in and shore up a communist regime. It would be like the reunification of Germany with funds being siphoned off from the West to rebuild the economy of the East. At least this is only one scenerio. There are many others out there, say Kim backs off and makes Dennis Rodman his new secretary of athletics thus cementing forever the friendship between the US and North Korea! The Koreans then disassemble their nuclear reactor sites and build ball courts. It could happen!


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Posted: 05 April 2013 10:38 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]
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Dead Monky - 04 April 2013 08:52 AM

If this keeps escalating, it will go badly.  Mostly for North Korea.  The DPRK has no friends anymore.  At least, none that are worth a damn.  Many think the Chinese will step in to help them, but that’s unlikely.  Read the press releases and news coming out of China.  [1]  The Chinese hate the North Koreans (and vice versa) and are tired of being embarrassed and having their reputation dragged through the mud every time the DPRK’s leadership starts grandstanding. The DPRK’s constant hunt for and threatening with nukes just infuriates them further.  Hell, the Chinese would side against the DPRK just for economics’ sake.  Who would you side with?  The 1st, 3rd, and 15th largest economies in the world (the US, Japan, and South Korea respectively) or one of the world’s smallest and crappiest economies?  The Chinese would probably just sit on their border and try to keep out the thousands of North Koreans that would inevitably stream across the border….

Excellent analysis.  One story I read which also makes alot of sense is that the whole thing is just posturing aimed not at the outside world, but to North Koreans themselves. His dad evidently was viewed as a god.  New guy needs to get support internally especially after embarassing himself lately.

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Posted: 06 April 2013 09:08 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 8 ]
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The big issue in a war with NK is the damage it would do to the global economy.  South Korea is home to a great number of electronics companies, and the largest, most productive shipyards in the world.  All of those things are no doubt first strike targets for the North Koreans, because it doesn’t matter how long North Korea is able to hold off the West, they’ll have jabbed a knife in the ribs of every economy in the world for some time to come.

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Posted: 06 April 2013 10:55 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 9 ]
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Nice to know that we don’t have the craziest leadership in the world.  LOL

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Posted: 06 April 2013 05:59 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 10 ]
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Kim Jong-Un is nowhere near as good at playing both ends against the middle and double crossing everybody….including his own allies….as his father and grandfather were. There are also some hints that the Chinese are less then pleased with the saber rattling, and they’re being rather public about expressing that displeasure.

If Kim doesn’t cool his jets, look to something very permanent happening to him…say a fall down the steps or a slip in the shower….to settle the issue. These patience of the Chinese only goes so far, and when something threatens their own interests, they don’t mind doing their own dirty work.

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Posted: 06 April 2013 06:12 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 11 ]
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I am not so sure he is as crazy as our media is making him out to be.

Un knows that his future stability is resting on being able to enter the globalized world in a way that is as painless as possible for N.K. If you go back to the days before 9/11, Clinton had promised help building nuclear electrical plants for N. K. and there was some serious potential for bringing them into the Pacific trading partners. 9/11 happens and GWBush lops N.K. in with Osama and Saddam as the “Axis of Evil” and we end all negotiations and aid/trade relations. Obama comes to office saying he is going to bring all nations to the table to negotiate differences, gets a Nobel prize for this new direction, and then promptly accepts everything that was the GWBush foreign policy and if anything goes one notch higher with sanctions and drone strikes etc. After twelve years, and Osama dead and no change in the American stance toward N.K. I think maybe he is just trying to jumpstart trade and aid talks. Throw in the fact that China, South Korea, and Japan just finished talks about a free trade zone between them… even putting the Diaoyu Island fiasco behind them in the process- N.K. is definitely feeling shut out. I suspect China will broker a deal that satisfies all the domestic markets- Obama will be able to look tough, NK/Un will look tough, and aid and technology will begin to flow into NK again- only they want to make sure it comes on their terms and they are not “colonized” by international corporations.

As a previous poster said- read China Daily and I think you will see where this is going. China is showing its typical passive/aggressive style tactics with N. Korea already, and of course China has more to lose here than even the US.

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Posted: 06 April 2013 06:18 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 12 ]
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I agree EOC but they had better reign him in very soon. He’s now threatening to launch one of his mobile missles. This form of brinkmanship isn’t going to work in the long run even though the NKs do this every Spring. He’s not his father and may go too far just to please the military leaders who prop him up. One wonders how the Chinese will react then.


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Posted: 06 April 2013 07:57 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 13 ]
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One wonders how the Chinese will react then.

He’ll probably meet with a “Tragic accident”

In Realpolitik, honking off the Big Boys is a capital offence and always has been. China has to know that all that debt they’re holding by way of a couple of trillion dollars worth of Treasury Bonds can have all their value evaporate if they make the wrong move, and in international affairs, China puts it’s vested interests FIRST and always has.

Kim Jong-Un will keep on breathing only as long as he’s useful.

The minute he becomes a liability, he’ll quickly find himself becoming a corpse.

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Posted: 07 April 2013 04:20 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 14 ]
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Equal Opportunity Curmudgeon - 06 April 2013 07:57 PM

One wonders how the Chinese will react then.

He’ll probably meet with a “Tragic accident”

In Realpolitik, honking off the Big Boys is a capital offence and always has been. China has to know that all that debt they’re holding by way of a couple of trillion dollars worth of Treasury Bonds can have all their value evaporate if they make the wrong move, and in international affairs, China puts it’s vested interests FIRST and always has.

Kim Jong-Un will keep on breathing only as long as he’s useful.

The minute he becomes a liability, he’ll quickly find himself becoming a corpse.

If that happens,let’s hope he doesn’t have a shorter, fatter, younger brother to take his place, haha.

I’m being nasty, of course, but what is it with short, fat men and being sh!!heads? Nero was like that, Hitler and Stalin were short, but not fat, and I think the current president of Chechnya fits that bill. Actually, I think I know the answer. smirk

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Posted: 07 April 2013 11:17 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 15 ]
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If that happens,let’s hope he doesn’t have a shorter, fatter, younger brother to take his place, haha.

I grok. Be sure the cure is not worse then the disease.

Still, what does that say about North Korea if it is?

I’m not so sure I want to know.

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