Here’s a recent article from a climate scientist that nails it.
May 22, 2013
“There’s been a flurry of magazine articles, a Congressional opinion piece in a national newspaper, and blogs disparaging climate models, all due to global average temperature not following a steady upward trend every step of the way. What’s remarkable is the sense these pieces convey that if there is a wiggle or pause over a decade in the clear long-term upward trend over the last century, then we should “throw out the baby with the bathwater.”
Factors that nudge global average temperature
In reality, scientists know and study all the potential factors that influence global average temperature, and would not expect a straight-line trend. In fact, the wiggles and wobbles of the global annual average, which combines ocean and atmospheric temperatures, provide scientists fodder for understanding how the atmosphere, ocean, biosphere, etc. respond on different time scales to all the major and minor forces nudging them to and fro, including human-induced climate change.
People often picture climate change as a steady, unfaltering rise in temperature. But that’s misleading. . . “