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Malysia flight 370
Posted: 19 March 2014 09:37 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 16 ]
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I would always be suspicious of sources that refuse to be named. It makes it very hard to verify such information which is often the reason they refuse to give their name. There will no doubt be lots of these surrounding this case in the coming months and years.

In regards to the turn. The pilot does not program a turn from what I understand. They can manually make a turn but if using the onboard navigation system they program a destination and the system then engages and executes all turns and altitude changes. I don’t know whether the plane will land itself if that isn’t programmed in but it makes no sense that it would fly past the programmed destination and then continue to execute additional maneuvers that take it even further away.

Again we are working with very limited data and specific bits of information seem to change from time to time so its difficult to put faith in any given interpretation of these events.

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Posted: 19 March 2014 10:35 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 17 ]
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Here is a quote from a CNN story today that calls into question the theory we are discussing

It says that ” it appears the passenger jet was programmed to steer off course before the pilots signed off with air traffic control—and that the change of course was transmitted to air traffic controllers.”

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370: How do passenger jets change flight paths?

There is a helpful 3 minute video on that page that explains a lot of the equipment in the cockpit

[ Edited: 19 March 2014 10:40 AM by macgyver ]
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Posted: 19 March 2014 12:44 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 18 ]
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So the pilot has a flight simulator in his garage. surprised  WTF
Someone builds a simulator in his garage,  a simulator for a Boeing 777-200 grrr  (http://www.balticaa.com/en/facilities-and-services/full-flight-simulators-ffs/boeing-777—-full-flight-simulator/)  -  like A) how does someone pull that off and B) for what?
I guess the for what is easier to tease out that the how.

Investigators are trying to restore files deleted last month from the home flight simulator of the pilot aboard the missing Malaysian plane to see if they shed any light on the disappearance, Malaysia’s defense minister said Wednesday.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-03-malaysia-deleted-flight-simulator.html#jCp

Oh and look what just popped up http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/malaysia-airlines-pilot-filmed-training-disappearance-article-1.1723318

===============

Interesting video macgyver.

Reminded me of the other thing that isn’t making sense to me.
The transponder was shut off, and the plane ‘disappeared’
but it seemed to take days to find out the plane apparently few for another ±5 hours after that,  according to other information…

But I thought the jet engines sent readings back to RollsRoyce maintenance somewhere.

Why didn’t they know immediately that the plane kept flying?

[ Edited: 19 March 2014 12:56 PM by citizenschallenge.pm ]
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Posted: 19 March 2014 03:41 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 19 ]
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From what I have heard its not unusual for pilots to construct their own flight simulators. Its fairly easy to do with off the shelf software and hardware components and it allows pilots to keep their skills sharp and practice for unusual events. They only get very limited time on official simulators each year.

To clarify something, when the transponder and ACARS are disabled the plane does not “disappear” the transponder sends out identifying data such as flight number, speed, heading etc. It provides the data that the air traffic control sees next to the blip on the radar screen. Without the transponder the blip is still there but the associated identifiers and descriptors are gone. The ACARS has several functions one of which is to collect data from sensors all over the plane that relate to the planes performance. It senses speed, altitude, engine performance, flap position etc. This information is then transmitted back to a central station on the ground periodically (every half hour i believe). It is sort of a cloud based version of some of the information stored in the black box that’s on the plane. It does not give up to the minute location data since its only uploaded form the plane every 30 minutes.

The data they are using to define the current search area comes from an entirely different system. The engines apparently have their own method of communicating in a very limited way where a satellite pings the engine every hour and waits for a response. Basically checking to see if the engines are alive. The satellite can determine how far away the signal is by measuring the time it takes for the signal to return. Basically you get a spherical set of points that are all equidistant from the satellite. You then look at where that sphere intersects with the surface of the earth since the points below the surface of the planet and out in space make no sense outside of crazy alien theories. This gives you a circular ring of possible locations that the plane could have been at when the last ping came in. You then start from the last known location of the plane and plot the furthest point on that ring that the plane could have traveled north or south before fuel ran out and the pings stopped. You can then erase all portion of the ring beyond those points. That leaves you with the two arcs they keep showing on TV. That’s not the path the plane flew, its a depiction of the possible places the plane could have been when the last ping came in.

From what I have heard the information from those engines is not being monitored in real time. If there is a need for the data someone has to request it and it has to be retrieved and then interpreted. The data is not designed to determine location only engine health. They had to do some interpolation of the data using the time delay to make use of it as a crude geolocator and that may have taken a little time.

[ Edited: 19 March 2014 03:44 PM by macgyver ]
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Posted: 19 March 2014 05:20 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 20 ]
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macgyver - 19 March 2014 10:35 AM

Here is a quote from a CNN story today that calls into question the theory we are discussing

It says that ” it appears the passenger jet was programmed to steer off course before the pilots signed off with air traffic control—and that the change of course was transmitted to air traffic controllers.”

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370: How do passenger jets change flight paths?

There is a helpful 3 minute video on that page that explains a lot of the equipment in the cockpit


Here is an excerpt from that article:

“The last transmission from Flight 370’s ACARS system came at 1:07 a.m.  The next update was due at 1:37 a.m. It never came.
While all information so far indicates that someone inside the cockpit, believed to be the co-pilot, made the last verbal communication with air traffic controllers—“All right, good night”—at 1:19 a.m., a law enforcement official told CNN that the plane’s programmed change in direction was entered at least (italics mine) 12 minutes before the plane’s verbal signoff.”

It appears to me that the law enforcement officer mis-spoke.  I think he should have said “at most” instead of “at least”. But even that (corrected statement) may not be correct, as the article goes on to say that ACARS may not transmit course change.

Some of what we have heard appears to be assumptions based on other assumptions, being reported as if it is accurate information.

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Posted: 19 March 2014 07:06 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 21 ]
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That’s why I wouldnt venture to guess what’s going on here. Very limited data available and the scarce data there is is being presented by people who don’t necessarily have a good understanding of the subject so the facts seem to shift from one report to the next.

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Posted: 19 March 2014 09:14 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 22 ]
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Well, it doesn’t matter much whether we do or don’t try to guess what actually happened, since we’re not in a position to do anything about it. 

But it is an interesting challenge, I think, to sift through the chaff of information, to try to make sense of it.  In the process, maybe we can figure out how to, more effectively, take in or disregard the information reported by the dysfunctional mass media.

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Posted: 19 March 2014 10:15 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 23 ]
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Looks as if they’ve found some wreckage in the Indian Ocean.

Lois

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Posted: 20 March 2014 05:19 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 24 ]
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Yes they did.. even in polish radio people were talking about.
  But probably the people, they are dead.. RIP.

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Posted: 20 March 2014 09:07 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 25 ]
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TimB - 17 March 2014 06:43 PM

The most plausible speculation, that I have seen about the mysterious disappearance of the 777 is this:
(excerpted from an article reported several days ago by CNN)http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/slow-decompression-may-have-knocked-all-onboard-mh370-unconscious-says-blog ...

“Likely fuselage failure near Satcom antenna adapter disabled some or all of GPS, ACARS, ADS-B, and ADS-C antennas and systems.

“Thus, only primary radars would detect the plane. Primary radar range is usually less than 100nm (nautical miles) and is generally ineffective at high altitudes.

“If the decompression was slow enough, it’s possible the pilots did not realise to put on oxygen masks until it was too late.” The writer said oxygen masks would not deploy until cabin altitude reaches 13,500m and the passengers were likely already unconscious by then.

Since it was also a red-eye flight, most passengers would had been sleeping and perhaps unaware of oxygen deprivation.


If such were the case, my guess is the plane is mostly, now, somewhere at the bottom of the Indian Ocean.

You may be right, but the passengers would not have had to be asleep to suffer the effects of oxygen deprivation.  They would have simply lost consciousness. Nobody would have been able to protest because they wouldn’t have realized that anything was wrong.

Lois

[ Edited: 20 March 2014 09:10 AM by Lois ]
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Posted: 20 March 2014 12:38 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 26 ]
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Lois - 20 March 2014 09:07 AM

You may be right, but the passengers would not have had to be asleep to suffer the effects of oxygen deprivation.  They would have simply lost consciousness. Nobody would have been able to protest because they wouldn’t have realized that anything was wrong.

Lois

That may not be entirely true. First we have to realize that this plane had over 200 people on board which means there will be a wide variation in genetics, physiology, and overall health among the passengers and crew. For this reason not everyone will develop the same symptoms at the same time. Hypoxemia can cause headache, confusion, poor judgement, lack of coordination, loss of consciousness, and seizures. Most likely in a group this large you will have some people suffering the most severe effects, others with mild effects and at the same time some people may still be relatively unaffected for a while. If the cabin gradually lost pressure I think there is a good chance that at least some of the passengers or crew would have noticed something was wrong before they all lost consciousness.

That may all be a moot point however if there was no way to correct the problem by accessing the oxygen masks or bringing the plane to a lower altitude since everyone would eventually succumb at some point.

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Posted: 24 March 2014 01:06 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 27 ]
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Mystery solved?  A confident explanation was given by (guess who?) as follows:

We can all stop wondering about this mystery, as it has been explained by (guess who).  She said:

“I see all these smarty pants people on CNN saying that it was terrorism or a fire in the cockpit.” she explained to a bewildered Hannity, “But I don’t hear anyone talking about the God possibility. I mean what if they accidentally flew too high and go stuck up there?

“I’m not expert on international aviation. But I do know that God is up there looking down on us. And everyone knows that once you go to heaven you can’t come back. This would explain why we haven’t found any wreckage in the ocean and why no one saw the plane land.

“The radar had the plane at 45,000 feet, well above it’s usual cruising altitude. Who knows how much higher they went?

“Of course the looney liberal media can only imagine secular explanations for this mystery. They would never tell the American public that God might be involved! But I hope the the Malaysian authorities and the NTSB take a look at the facts and seriously consider the idea that this flight crossed into Christ’s kingdom and isn’t coming back.”

And this person could have been a heartbeat away from the Presidency.  Wow. (I think this is parody. But it is almost believable that she said it.)
http://www.codewit.com/north-america/17392-palin-wonders-if-malaysian-flight-370-flew-directly-to-heaven

[ Edited: 24 March 2014 01:12 AM by TimB ]
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Posted: 24 March 2014 04:39 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 28 ]
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Great. Now who’s going to make the call to the astronauts on the ISS to let them know they won’t be able to come home because they are too high up and everyone knows you can;t come home once you go to heaven.

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Posted: 24 March 2014 06:28 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 29 ]
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Damn. The Palin thing is a spoof created by the Daily Currant. I was really looking forward to Tina Fey to come out of retirement and have fun with this.

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Posted: 24 March 2014 12:14 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 30 ]
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The best thing for everyone to do regarding the missing plane is to apply Ockham’s razor—something most media are loathe to do.

Occam’s razor (also written as Ockham’s razor from William of Ockham (c. 1287 – 1347), and in Latin lex parsimoniae) is a principle of parsimony, economy, or succinctness used in problem-solving. It states that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove correct, but—in the absence of certainty—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better.

wikipedia

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