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Are Climate Models accurate enough to trust?
Posted: 15 February 2017 05:55 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 436 ]
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The need for speed:

Humans are changing climate 170 times faster than nature, say researchers

“Over the past 7,000 years the primary forces driving change have been astronomical - changes in solar intensity and subtle changes in orbital parameters, along with a few volcanoes,” Will Steffen, of the Fenner School of Environment and Society and the Climate Change Institute at ANU, said in a statement.

“Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions over the past 45 years have increased the rate of temperature rise to 1.7 degrees Celsius per century, dwarfing the natural background rate,” Steffen added.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/13/humans-are-changing-climate-170-times-faster-than-nature-say-researchers.html

7,000 years wouldn’t include the Ice Age and that was not man made so I wonder why they don’t take a longer view.

psik

[ Edited: 16 February 2017 11:23 AM by psikeyhackr ]
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Posted: 19 February 2017 12:01 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 437 ]
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psikeyhackr - 15 February 2017 05:55 PM

The need for speed:

Humans are changing climate 170 times faster than nature, say researchers

“Over the past 7,000 years the primary forces driving change have been astronomical - changes in solar intensity and subtle changes in orbital parameters, along with a few volcanoes,” Will Steffen, of the Fenner School of Environment and Society and the Climate Change Institute at ANU, said in a statement.

“Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions over the past 45 years have increased the rate of temperature rise to 1.7 degrees Celsius per century, dwarfing the natural background rate,” Steffen added.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/13/humans-are-changing-climate-170-times-faster-than-nature-say-researchers.html

7,000 years wouldn’t include the Ice Age and that was not man made so I wonder why they don’t take a longer view.

psik

“Over the past 7,000 years the primary forces driving change have been astronomical - changes in solar intensity and subtle changes in orbital parameters, along with a few volcanoes,” Will Steffen, of the Fenner School of Environment and Society and the Climate Change Institute at ANU, said in a statement.
“Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions over the past 45 years have increased the rate of temperature rise to 1.7 degrees Celsius per century, dwarfing the natural background rate,” Steffen added.

Hmmm, you’re right. 
Then I started doing a little poking around.  I think you need to seek out better news sources .

From the study itself.

The Anthropocene Equation
Owen Gaffney, Will Steffen
First Published February 10, 2017
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2053019616688022

Abstract
The dominant external forces influencing the rate of change of the Earth System have been astronomical and geophysical during the planet’s 4.5-billion-year existence. In the last six decades, anthropogenic forcings have driven exceptionally rapid rates of change in the Earth System.

This new regime can be represented by an ‘Anthropocene equation’, where other forcings tend to zero, and the rate of change under human influence can be estimated. Reducing the risk of leaving the glacial–interglacial limit cycle of the late Quaternary for an uncertain future will require, in the first instance,
the rate of change of the Earth System to become approximately zero.

Hey, and thanks for posting that.  Very interesting.

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Posted: 19 February 2017 12:04 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 438 ]
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/12/humans-causing-climate-to-change-170-times-faster-than-natural-forces

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Posted: 19 February 2017 04:23 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 439 ]
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Citizenschallenge-v.3 - 19 February 2017 12:04 AM

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/12/humans-causing-climate-to-change-170-times-faster-than-natural-forces

Good article, but did you read the comments? One scientific article about climate change and ignorant deniers start swarming out of the woodwork! It’s amaxing how many deliberately stupid and scientifically tin-eared people there are. I know at least one of them and I would forward the article to him but I don’t want the comments to add fuel to the fire of his rank stupidity. I really don’t get what drives this absolute refusal to accept reality. There have always been stupid people in the world but this is different. They seem to think there is a worldwide conspiracy against them and that they need to defend themselves against it at every opportunity. Anybody have any idea what this stupidity springs from? It seems to be world wide, though the preponderance of run of the mill fools in the United States are outdoing themselves. Can we lay the blame for this only on the country’s abysmal level of scientific education? It sounds much more sinister than that. What’s behind it?

The accompanying article may shed some light.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/06/trump-world-climate-change-denial

Lois

[ Edited: 19 February 2017 04:27 AM by LoisL ]
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Posted: 19 February 2017 04:56 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 440 ]
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MikeYohe - 11 February 2017 09:49 PM

 
Here is what does make logical sense about your statements.
Former Obama EPA Chief Concedes: ‘Climate Change Has Become A Religion’
http://nation.foxnews.com/2017/02/10/former-obama-epa-chief-concedes-climate-change-has-become-religion

This is clearly taken out of context: she means that climate change is discussed as if it is a religion. But it isn’t: it is hard science. The facts are there: the climate is changing fast, due to emissions of CO2 and methane. This is a scientific fact, not religion.

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Posted: 19 February 2017 07:57 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 441 ]
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GdB - 19 February 2017 04:56 AM
MikeYohe - 11 February 2017 09:49 PM

 
Here is what does make logical sense about your statements.
Former Obama EPA Chief Concedes: ‘Climate Change Has Become A Religion’
http://nation.foxnews.com/2017/02/10/former-obama-epa-chief-concedes-climate-change-has-become-religion

This is clearly taken out of context: ...

Sadly that doesn’t matter to them.  All they are concerned about is receiving reassuring words.  Facts and physical reality are abstract notions to that mindscape.

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Posted: 19 February 2017 08:02 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 442 ]
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LoisL - 19 February 2017 04:23 AM
Citizenschallenge-v.3 - 19 February 2017 12:04 AM

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/12/humans-causing-climate-to-change-170-times-faster-than-natural-forces

Good article, but did you read the comments? One scientific article about climate change and ignorant deniers start swarming out of the woodwork! It’s amaxing how many deliberately stupid and scientifically tin-eared people there are. I know at least one of them and I would forward the article to him but I don’t want the comments to add fuel to the fire of his rank stupidity. I really don’t get what drives this absolute refusal to accept reality. There have always been stupid people in the world but this is different. They seem to think there is a worldwide conspiracy against them and that they need to defend themselves against it at every opportunity. Anybody have any idea what this stupidity springs from? It seems to be world wide, though the preponderance of run of the mill fools in the United States are outdoing themselves. Can we lay the blame for this only on the country’s abysmal level of scientific education? It sounds much more sinister than that. What’s behind it?

The accompanying article may shed some light.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/06/trump-world-climate-change-denial
Why we’re all everyday climate change deniers

Alice Bell

Lois

Thanks that was a good, if sad, read.

... But there is an even bigger group than any of the above: the rest of us. You probably agree climate change is happening, have maybe even bothered to cut down on how much meat you eat or bunged Greenpeace a quid or two when Russia locked up those Arctic activists. But most of the time you avoid looking global warming in the eye. ...

...In many ways this everyday denial is understandable. Climate change is abstract. We only know about it through vast, complex, global and multi-generational networks of interdisciplinary, highly advanced science. It’s easy for it to drop out of our minds, even if we believe in it. ...

It’s also very scary.

{But she has a happy-ish ending}
... That future is possible. It might even be probable. But it’s not inevitable. We can choose to see climate change, and we can choose to do this before it’s too late. So how can we escape the quagmire of denial? As it turns out, the first step isn’t that hard: just talk about it. To your friends, family, colleagues – even to yourself. By talking about climate change, you’ll make it feel less scary. By talking about it, we’ll unlock solutions. And, crucially, it’s by talking about climate change that we’ll break the silence that allows it to go unnoticed and ignored.

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Posted: 19 February 2017 08:19 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 443 ]
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GdB - 19 February 2017 04:56 AM
MikeYohe - 11 February 2017 09:49 PM

 
Here is what does make logical sense about your statements.
Former Obama EPA Chief Concedes: ‘Climate Change Has Become A Religion’
http://nation.foxnews.com/2017/02/10/former-obama-epa-chief-concedes-climate-change-has-become-religion

This is clearly taken out of context: she means that climate change is discussed as if it is a religion. But it isn’t: it is hard science. The facts are there: the climate is changing fast, due to emissions of CO2 and methane. This is a scientific fact, not religion.

I disagree. I think she had to deal with Climate Change every day and knows a lot about the subject. The context was not about the science or the scientist. It was about the people who crusade the science, the none-scientist. I also think it is a big step to say the person who held such a level of authority in our nation on the subject needs to have her thoughts re-directed. Answer this question, is there a religious movement in Climate Change? There is on this site, that’s for sure.

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Posted: 19 February 2017 08:48 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 444 ]
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MikeYohe - 19 February 2017 08:19 AM

Answer this question, is there a religious movement in Climate Change? There is on this site, that’s for sure.

There is a religious movement against the fact that we humans change the climate in a fast rate. And sure, it is on your site: you are one of this movement.

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Posted: 19 February 2017 11:32 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 445 ]
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I suspect the “religious” aspect comes from people who are dyed-in-the-wool “capitalists” who are absolutely against anything that might support regulations that might interfere with exploiting the earth to make a buck.

Lois

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Posted: 23 February 2017 05:10 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 446 ]
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All in all, the United States has already set more than 2,800 new record high temperatures this month. It has only set 27 record lows.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/02/should-you-enjoy-the-warm-winters-of-climate-change/517512/

May you live in interesting times. - supposed Chinese curse.  A 100 to 1 hoax.  LOL

psik

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Posted: 23 February 2017 05:13 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 447 ]
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What’s the alternative to trusting climate models?

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Posted: 24 February 2017 08:31 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 448 ]
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MikeYohe - 19 February 2017 08:19 AM


Here is what does make logical sense about your statements.
Former Obama EPA Chief Concedes: ‘Climate Change Has Become A Religion’
http://nation.foxnews.com/2017/02/10/former-obama-epa-chief-concedes-climate-change-has-become-religion
Written by Marc Morano, Climate Depot

Sowing confusion is his job one.
But that’s enough for Mike, so long it says what he wants to hear. 

GdB - 19 February 2017 08:48 AM
MikeYohe - 19 February 2017 08:19 AM

Answer this question, is there a religious movement in Climate Change? There is on this site, that’s for sure.

There is a religious movement against the fact that we humans change the climate in a fast rate. And sure, it is on your site: you are one of this movement.


Only people firmly ensconced within their bubble and who refuse to look at all sides of an issue can possibly buy into Mr. Morano’s political spin.

Speaking in California, former Obama EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy said:

We still have challenges and we have even more.  But we’ve made great progress and I want to make sure that that progress is not rolled back for the sake of, in the name of politics.

0:11 - *I don’t know why climate change got to be a religion instead of a simple fact based science exercise*  But, I do know that the actions that California is taking and others will make the difference between whether we stand still fall or back on Move Forward.  I do see that states are actually making these investments.

0:30 - The challenge I think we have is for some reason climate change has become a religion, a politically induced religion instead of science fact, that now we have to embrace and move forward on.

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Posted: 24 February 2017 12:50 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 449 ]
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LoisL - 23 February 2017 05:13 PM

What’s the alternative to trusting climate models?

Assuming that they are probably wrong because we are dealing with a HUGE COMPLEX DYNAMIC SYSTEM that it is extremely difficult to get accurate data on and must have aspects that we do not know about yet.  Therefore the models are only indicators with unknown accuracy.

Therefore we should assume that there is a good chance that things will be worse than the models extrapolate.

There is no Planet B.

psik

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Posted: 25 February 2017 12:49 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 450 ]
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psikeyhackr - 24 February 2017 12:50 PM
LoisL - 23 February 2017 05:13 PM

What’s the alternative to trusting climate models?

Assuming that they are probably wrong because we are dealing with a HUGE COMPLEX DYNAMIC SYSTEM that it is extremely difficult to get accurate data on and must have aspects that we do not know about yet.  Therefore the models are only indicators with unknown accuracy.

Therefore we should assume that there is a good chance that things will be worse than the models extrapolate.

There is no Planet B.

psik

So you’re saying that neither the people who accept the climate models nor the ones who deny their accuracy have a leg to stamd on.

I think I’ll take my chances and go along with the 99+% of climate scientists who say the climate models have something going for them, but that’s just me.

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