The Brown Ocean Effect
Posted: 02 October 2016 03:45 PM   [ Ignore ]
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Check this out.  I don’t think they figured this into my pappy’s climate models.

The surprised keep coming, and all tend to imply more challenges for our society and all the sheople who are oblivious to what’s afoot.

The Brown Ocean Effect

Climate State
Published on Aug 31, 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZ4N9G2GDIk

Tropical storms and hurricanes are driven by energy and momentum derived from warm ocean waters of at least 26.5°C. The warmer the ocean, the more energy is available to the storm, and the more intense it is likely to become. Ordinarily, these storms lose energy after making landfall, as they move beyond the ocean as their source of heat energy. However, in 2007 this conventional wisdom was brought into question when meteorologists were stumped by Tropical Storm Erin.

As tropical storm Erin tracked over Texas, something unusual occurred: it grew stronger over land than it ever had while over the Gulf of Mexico, even forming a hurricane-like eye over the state of Oklahoma. The phenomenon came to called “The Brown Ocean Effect” — and describes storms which derrive their energy over land, after moving ashore. Storms fed by the Brown Ocean Effect get their energy from the evaporation of abundant soil moisture. The land essentially mimics the moisture-rich environment of the ocean, where the storm originated.

According to NASA-funded research by Theresa Andersen and J. Marshall Shepherd of the University of Georgia in Athens, tropical storm Erin is an example of the newly-described Brown Ocean Effect, and has given rise to a new sub-category of tropical storm type called “Tropical Cyclone Maintenance and Intensification Event,” or TCMI.

The finding has possible implications for the response of storms to climate change. As average surface temperatures rise, and as precipitation events increase in frequency and severity, more moisture is retained and then released from extremely wet soils. This, together with warmer air in vulnerable regions, supports the environmental conditions for the persistence of tropical storms well beyond their ocean birthplace.

Recently in June 2015, Tropical Storm Bill brought isolated rainfall totals of more than a foot to the Texas/Oklahoma border area, and was likely impacted by the Brown Ocean Effect ...

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Posted: 04 October 2016 12:51 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
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This is why TRUSTING climate models is nonsense.

They are more scary because we cannot trust them.  We are studying a system we only partly understand and applying forcings to it causing it to go into states that either have not existed for a few million years or have never existed at all.  Therefore it will do things we cannot predict.  We can only add them to the model after they happen.  How good a crystal ball is that?  The climate models cannot be trusted.

But there is no Planet B.

Move to Norway:

https://www.thelocal.no/20161003/why-norways-farmers-will-benefit-from-climate-change

psik

[ Edited: 04 October 2016 07:06 PM by psikeyhackr ]
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Posted: 04 October 2016 11:00 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
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psikeyhackr - 04 October 2016 12:51 PM

This is why TRUSTING climate models is nonsense.

They are more scary because we cannot trust them.  We are studying a system we only partly understand and applying forcings to it causing it to go into states that either have not existed for a few million years or have never existed at all.  Therefore it will do things we cannot predict.  We can only add them to the model after they happen.  How good a crystal ball is that?  The climate models cannot be trusted.

Psik, I think you are jumping off the deep end there.
First, you seem to set up impossible expectations of models.  Exactly how much to you expect them to be able to guarantee?
Second, scientists do understand the physics and the models serve to inform in an intelligent manner.
Third, what do you mean TRUST models?
We should trust observations and common sense.

The only thing we know for absolute certain is that more greenhouse gases we inject into our atmosphere, the warmer our planet is going to become.
The warmer our planet becomes the higher the seas will rise and the more intense storms and droughts will become.
Not to mention the upheaval of environments and eco-systems accustomed to the previous millions of years of Earth’s physical reality.

What more do we need to understand that our observed extreme weather trends over the past half century haven’t taught us already ???

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Posted: 05 October 2016 09:23 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
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citizenschallenge.pm - 04 October 2016 11:00 PM
psikeyhackr - 04 October 2016 12:51 PM

This is why TRUSTING climate models is nonsense.

They are more scary because we cannot trust them.  We are studying a system we only partly understand and applying forcings to it causing it to go into states that either have not existed for a few million years or have never existed at all.  Therefore it will do things we cannot predict.  We can only add them to the model after they happen.  How good a crystal ball is that?  The climate models cannot be trusted.

Psik, I think you are jumping off the deep end there.
First, you seem to set up impossible expectations of models.  Exactly how much to you expect them to be able to guarantee?
Second, scientists do understand the physics and the models serve to inform in an intelligent manner.
Third, what do you mean TRUST models?
We should trust observations and common sense.

What model predicted that the jet stream would start looping north an south before it happened?  I did not start the thread about whether climat models can be trusted, so I can only use my idea about what is meant by “trust” in that case.

Climate models fail to ‘predict’ US droughts

Simulations identify past megadroughts, but at wrong times.

http://www.nature.com/news/climate-models-fail-to-predict-us-droughts-1.12810

psik

[ Edited: 05 October 2016 09:25 AM by psikeyhackr ]
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Posted: 06 October 2016 07:45 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]
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psikeyhackr - 05 October 2016 09:23 AM
citizenschallenge.pm - 04 October 2016 11:00 PM
psikeyhackr - 04 October 2016 12:51 PM

This is why TRUSTING climate models is nonsense.

They are more scary because we cannot trust them.  We are studying a system we only partly understand and applying forcings to it causing it to go into states that either have not existed for a few million years or have never existed at all.  Therefore it will do things we cannot predict.  We can only add them to the model after they happen.  How good a crystal ball is that?  The climate models cannot be trusted.

Psik, I think you are jumping off the deep end there.
First, you seem to set up impossible expectations of models.  Exactly how much to you expect them to be able to guarantee?
Second, scientists do understand the physics and the models serve to inform in an intelligent manner.
Third, what do you mean TRUST models?
We should trust observations and common sense.

What model predicted that the jet stream would start looping north an south before it happened?  I did not start the thread about whether climat models can be trusted, so I can only use my idea about what is meant by “trust” in that case.

Climate models fail to ‘predict’ US droughts

Simulations identify past megadroughts, but at wrong times.

http://www.nature.com/news/climate-models-fail-to-predict-us-droughts-1.12810

psik

I believe a prerequisite for any Climate Model discussion is to first establish what one’s expectation of climate models are.
I quote from your article:

Reliable forecasts of future ‘megadroughts’ would be a boon to farmers and water managers. ...

But Smerdon adds that the atmospheric and oceanic dynamics that inhibit rainfall and favour prolonged drought
may be essentially random and so almost unpredictable. ...

But the uncertainties don’t change the larger picture, scientists say.
“Climate models are not perfect, but they do the big things really well,” says Tierney.
“We can be pretty confident that the southwest will warm and that water will become scarcer.” ...

I myself expect climate models to describe the parameters of what we are doing to our atmosphere and global heat and moisture distribution engine.

I have never expected them to become weather forecasting instruments.  I appreciate that the complexity of the systems involved make that impossible.
So why set up cynical impossible expectations?

Climate Model inability to reach that kind of fidelity does not mean they aren’t clearly showing us what is coming our way.
We can learn all we need to know from understanding those parameters.  Cut down and prepare.  But our window of opportunity has come and gone I fear.

I can’t even understand how that is still being argued about.
Jezz, all those people pretending (or actually oblivious) to notice how weather patterns have transitioned over the past decades,
in particular this past.  What’s going on?  Do people actually believe storms and upheavals are going to moderate?  Do they even think?

I just reread that first line and it’s ludicrous - a mega drought by definition lasts a couple decades or more.
How are managers going to plan for that?  If we couldn’t even allow ourselves to grasp the basics when we had time to do something about it.

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Posted: 07 October 2016 07:32 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]
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citizenschallenge.pm - 06 October 2016 07:45 PM

[I can’t even understand how that is still being argued about.
Jezz, all those people pretending (or actually oblivious) to notice how weather patterns have transitioned over the past decades,
in particular this past.  What’s going on?  Do people actually believe storms and upheavals are going to moderate?  Do they even think?.

The bottom of the Keeling sine curve just passed 400 and is still headed up.

What past records are there even to test against?

We have created conditions that have never existed before.

psik

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Posted: 07 October 2016 08:21 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]
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psikeyhackr - 07 October 2016 07:32 AM
citizenschallenge.pm - 06 October 2016 07:45 PM

[I can’t even understand how that is still being argued about.
Jezz, all those people pretending (or actually oblivious) to notice how weather patterns have transitioned over the past decades,
in particular this past.  What’s going on?  Do people actually believe storms and upheavals are going to moderate?  Do they even think?.

The bottom of the Keeling sine curve just passed 400 and is still headed up.

What past records are there even to test against?

We have created conditions that have never existed before.

psik

It’s certainly unique in it’s particulars.
But the basic geophysics aren’t at all unique. 

Earth’s atmosphere insulates us from frigid space, more insulation heats the planet, melts the cryosphere, increases sea levels, increases moisture in the air, thus radically altering the hydrologic cycle (read weather patterns). 

Creatures adapt, mutate, evolve, or die out.  New species radiation depends on the next steady plateau, such as that wonder 8/10K years totally wonderful for society optimal climate period.  We’ve totally fucked that one to hell.  Our society will not be able to adapt to the drum beat of life and infrastructure destroying weather events.  Witness Florida.  It’ll be interesting to see how Cape Kennedy (yes I said Kennedy) and the space station weathers the storm.  I hear that big building is rated for direct winds of 100mph.  What were those top speeds of Matthew again?... 140ish I think.  Of course the game we we’re playing is where will those high gusts develop and what will they target.

But I digress psik.

Earth’s Past Climate Reveals Future Global Warming
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-s-past-climate-reveals-future-global-warming/

... But a new study published in Nature challenges this argument by exploring warm periods in Earth’s deep history. The study finds that the Earth’s climate in the past responded to CO2 in a manner similar to today; hidden factors did not suddenly kick in to alter the relationship between CO2 and temperature.
The “factors” are natural phenomena such as water vapor, clouds, sea ice, dust and vegetation—all of which exert varying pulls on the climate. Water vapor and sea ice, for instance, are potent warming agents, while dust and sea ice are cooling agents.. When scientists use computer models to simulate climate change, they translate all these factors into into code and enter them into Earth’s virtual reality. ...

also

What does past climate change tell us about global warming?
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-change-little-ice-age-medieval-warm-period-intermediate.htm

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Posted: 07 October 2016 12:08 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]
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citizenschallenge.pm - 07 October 2016 08:21 AM

It’s certainly unique in it’s particulars.
But the basic geophysics aren’t at all unique. 

Earth’s atmosphere insulates us from frigid space, more insulation heats the planet, melts the cryosphere, increases sea levels, increases moisture in the air, thus radically altering the hydrologic cycle (read weather patterns). 

Suppose we have a car making a sharp turn at 5 mph.

Then we have the car make the turn at 10 mph.

Keep repeating the process while steadily increasing the speed.  If the car has never been tested on that surface with those tires how do you predict when it breaks loose?  Could the temperature and humidity affect the result?

The problem is changes of state, when any number of different things might change state.  How good are the extrapolations of methane from the arctic tundra?  For me the word ‘trust’ does not apply to this situation.  The models are merely the best guesses we can make under the circumstances.

psik

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Posted: 07 October 2016 12:53 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 8 ]
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I think psikey raises a good point here. The climate models have, if anything, been too conservative. Arctic sea ice has been melting far faster than the models predicted, for example. Climatologists only recently realized the potential impacts of methane release from tundras. Things are worse than predicted.

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Posted: 07 October 2016 05:44 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 9 ]
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Okay I agree with both of you.
That’s why I said it’s important to start this sort of conversation with a clear understanding of what we are expecting from climate models,
before we rate how good or bad they are.

I’m a bit feisty on the topic because so many use climate model uncertainty as a reason for complacency and pretending what’s happening isn’t happening.
When in fact climate scientists were already a very conservative crowd, and the vicious attacks of Right-wing PR organizations and
media made them yet more conservative and cautious.                   

It’s also true that despite what you’ll hear from Murdoch’s outfits, very many real world changes are happening faster than anyone dared expect.

Nature is always more complex and surprising than we expect.
____________________

This Brown Ocean Effect being but the latest one I’ve become aware of. 
Think about it,  The ground saturated with moisture, evaporating so much, because of extreme temperatures,
that it creates enough moisture and updraft that it feeds a hurricane like ocean surface water does.

Crazy stuff, but oh so real.

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Posted: 07 October 2016 07:32 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 10 ]
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Yep, nature has way of biting us in the ass, as this Brown Ocean Effect demonstrates. I hope future generations can hang on, the ride is going to get rough.

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Posted: 07 October 2016 07:38 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 11 ]
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Amen   downer

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Posted: 30 January 2017 07:10 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 12 ]
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A small example of what is to come.

http://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AAmqmq6.img?h=768&w=1080&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/monster-winter-storm-expected-to-churn-up-50-foot-waves-in-the-open-atlantic/ar-AAmqoWM?li=BBnbcA1&fullscreen=true#image=1

[ Edited: 30 January 2017 07:15 PM by Write4U ]
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Posted: 30 January 2017 10:26 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 13 ]
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gulp

By Angela Fritz January 30 at 3:38 PM
Monster winter storm expected to churn up 50-foot waves in the open Atlantic
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/01/30/monster-winter-storm-expected-to-churn-up-50-foot-waves-in-the-atlantic/

A monster winter storm is taking shape along the East Coast this week, and the National Weather Service is calling for 50-foot waves in the Atlantic by Tuesday.
That’s not just a shot-in-the-dark — if you add up all of the forecast data, there’s over a 90 percent chance that wave heights will exceed 30 feet.

This storm is the same trough of low pressure that dipped into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday and dropped a few inches of snow in the D.C. area.
On Monday morning, the storm was just 1005 millibars — barely a low pressure system at all. But over the next 48 hours, the storm is expected to drop to 968 millibars.

On its southern side, winds will easily reach Category 1 hurricane-strength. That will churn up waves of 16 meters, which is around 50 feet —
at least that’s what the Ocean Prediction Center is forecasting. ...

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Posted: 30 January 2017 11:00 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 14 ]
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Citizenschallenge-v.3 - 30 January 2017 10:26 PM

gulp

By Angela Fritz January 30 at 3:38 PM
Monster winter storm expected to churn up 50-foot waves in the open Atlantic
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/01/30/monster-winter-storm-expected-to-churn-up-50-foot-waves-in-the-atlantic/

A monster winter storm is taking shape along the East Coast this week, and the National Weather Service is calling for 50-foot waves in the Atlantic by Tuesday.
That’s not just a shot-in-the-dark — if you add up all of the forecast data, there’s over a 90 percent chance that wave heights will exceed 30 feet.

This storm is the same trough of low pressure that dipped into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday and dropped a few inches of snow in the D.C. area.
On Monday morning, the storm was just 1005 millibars — barely a low pressure system at all. But over the next 48 hours, the storm is expected to drop to 968 millibars.

On its southern side, winds will easily reach Category 1 hurricane-strength. That will churn up waves of 16 meters, which is around 50 feet —
at least that’s what the Ocean Prediction Center is forecasting. ...

Do you think there is any chance it will sweep Agent Orange out to sea?

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Posted: 31 January 2017 02:12 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 15 ]
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LoisL - 30 January 2017 11:00 PM
Citizenschallenge-v.3 - 30 January 2017 10:26 PM

gulp

By Angela Fritz January 30 at 3:38 PM
Monster winter storm expected to churn up 50-foot waves in the open Atlantic
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/01/30/monster-winter-storm-expected-to-churn-up-50-foot-waves-in-the-atlantic/

A monster winter storm is taking shape along the East Coast this week, and the National Weather Service is calling for 50-foot waves in the Atlantic by Tuesday.
That’s not just a shot-in-the-dark — if you add up all of the forecast data, there’s over a 90 percent chance that wave heights will exceed 30 feet.

This storm is the same trough of low pressure that dipped into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday and dropped a few inches of snow in the D.C. area.
On Monday morning, the storm was just 1005 millibars — barely a low pressure system at all. But over the next 48 hours, the storm is expected to drop to 968 millibars.

On its southern side, winds will easily reach Category 1 hurricane-strength. That will churn up waves of 16 meters, which is around 50 feet —
at least that’s what the Ocean Prediction Center is forecasting. ...

Do you think there is any chance it will sweep Agent Orange out to sea?

  I doubt that, but it’s an indication that unusual natural events are becoming more common, at several levels.
A storm’s a brewing, and it’s not a matter of if, but when and how.

p.s. The movie “The Perfect Storm”, paints a great picture of the forces of such events.

[ Edited: 31 January 2017 02:17 AM by Write4U ]
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