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What’s with the scientific fixation on the Carbon Theory?
Posted: 05 July 2017 09:05 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 16 ]
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Ref# post 14
 
About four years ago papers about jumps started to appear more often. A lag takes time. A jump can be quick, real quick, we are taking in a decade. I have yet to see anyone counter a theory on jumps. The whole carbon theory of the Ice Cores data is based upon lags. Right now, the lags are in question by many scientists. Lags were said to take from 800 to 5,000 years. Now it is said maybe 200 years. And some have said there is no lag. And it is very possible that we have reached a point where the reaction of the carbon has changed. Meaning that as more carbon goes into the atmosphere then the lag changes. This I think is the main question that people want answered today. And your link of “Maximum warming occurs…” follows this point. But that thinking does not work in the timelines of the Ice Core lag time.

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Posted: 05 July 2017 09:06 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 17 ]
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Ref# post 15
 
Carbon Theory. Take away the top and bottom 2% of thinking and what you have left is that it is agreed that carbon is a warming blanket and heats when hit by sunlight. Then the thinking is divided into two pathways. One is that carbon is the driving force of the heat. The other is that the sun is the driving force of the heat.
 
Really simple. If carbon is the driving force then the heat should follow the carbon. If the sun is the driving force then the heat should follow the orbital cycles and enhanced by the carbon blanket.
 
Thus, greenhouse gases as a heating and blanket are understood by 96% of the people. It is a waste of time dealing with the other 4%. The way I see the problem is that in the political side if the government says that carbon is not the driving force. All they are saying is that the sun is the driving force. Not that greenhouse gases don’t cause the problems we are having today. In other words, it is easy to see why they pick the other pathway when you look at how the carbon as a driving force has been explained. When you look at the charts and the claims made with carbon as a driving force, we should be having temperatures much higher today.
 
Why I have not picked one of the two pathways for carbon heating yet. And I don’t have to pick. All I have to do is wait for the IPCC to tell me which pathway is the driving force.

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Posted: 05 July 2017 06:25 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 18 ]
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MikeYohe - 05 July 2017 09:05 AM

The whole carbon theory of the Ice Cores data is based upon lags.

Define what the hell you are talking about!

I’m not talking about how scientists have learned to read Ice Cores.

That is not the Carbon Theory!

I’m talking about how scientists know to exquisite perfection how greenhouse gases behave in our atmosphere and how that will impact our planet’s energy budget.

Every thing else, I mean EVERYTHING ELSE, is chump change next to that fundamental physical reality the GOP and other contrarian have been so f’n successful at avoiding.

Give it another try Mike, if you dare.

here fishy fishy fishy, come on what do you know?    smirk

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Posted: 05 July 2017 06:40 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 19 ]
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He won’t, the whole denial basis is about chipping away at the fringes of our knowledge about carbon dioxide and how it warms the Earth’s surface.

The moment they’re forced to address the central evidence they drift away like a really pungent fart in a small room.

To me they truly are that disgusting.

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Posted: 05 July 2017 07:11 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 20 ]
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https:// scied.ucar.edu/carbon-dioxide-absorbs-and-re-emits-infrared-radiation

Molecules of carbon dioxide (CO2) can absorb energy from infrared (IR) radiation. This animation shows a molecule of CO2 absorbing an incoming infrared photon (yellow arrows). The energy from the photon causes the CO2 molecule to vibrate. Shortly thereafter, the molecule gives up this extra energy by emitting another infrared photon. Once the extra energy has been removed by the emitted photon, the carbon dioxide stops vibrating.

This ability to absorb and re-emit infrared energy is what makes CO2 an effective heat-trapping greenhouse gas. Not all gas molecules are able to absorb IR radiation. For example, nitrogen (N2) and oxygen (O2), which make up more than 90% of Earth’s atmosphere, do not absorb infrared photons. CO2 molecules can vibrate in ways that simpler nitrogen and oxygen molecules cannot, which allows CO2 molecules to capture the IR photons.

Greenhouse gases and the greenhouse effect play an important role in Earth’s climate. Without greenhouse gases, our planet would be a frozen ball of ice. In recent years, however, excess emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from human activities (mostly burning fossil fuels) have begun to warm Earth’s climate at a problematic rate. Other significant greenhouse gases include water vapor (H2O), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and ozone (O3).

This has been understood for a very long time, the only people who truly “don’t get it” are professional idiots who in many cases are paid very well to keep asking, “what the heck could be going on, we need to study this for (N) more years to really understand what is happening.”

spamline

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Posted: 05 July 2017 08:14 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 21 ]
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Oh and incidentally, your analogy is like saying either the driving force of your body is your brain or it’s your heart.

MikeYohe - 05 July 2017 09:06 AM

Really simple. If carbon is the driving force then the heat should follow the carbon. If the sun is the driving force then the heat should follow the orbital cycles and enhanced by the carbon blanket.

The Sun is the driving force of warming our planet.
The atmosphere and its greenhouse gases act as insulation,
that in turn holds in heat, which in turn heats oceans and land and such and establishes of our global climate system -
a global heat and moisture distribution engine taking the suns broiling heat on our equator and moving it towards our poles,
there’s more to it.

Earth From Space HD 1080p Nova & NASA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpFryXQbVEA

Sun and atmosphere behave in concert along with many other lesser components our climate engine to give us today’s weather systems.


You can’t understand what’s going on with so little fundamental grasp of the dynamic systems climate involves
and that scientists have been telling us (those interested enough to listen and learn.) about as their understanding continues to increase.
(at least the words you share do.)


These notions you present are like psik expounding on high-rise structures.

[ Edited: 05 July 2017 08:24 PM by Citizenschallenge-v.3 ]
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Posted: 05 July 2017 08:15 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 22 ]
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DougC - 05 July 2017 07:11 PM

spamline

Is that a new good luck chant / charm ?

fill me in   hmmm

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Posted: 05 July 2017 08:19 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 23 ]
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DougC - 05 July 2017 07:11 PM

https:// scied.ucar.edu/carbon-dioxide-absorbs-and-re-emits-infrared-radiation

That’s pretty cool, just a space will do it. 

This has been understood for a very long time,
the only people who truly “don’t get it” are professional idiots who in many cases are paid very well to keep asking,
“what the heck could be going on, we need to study this for (N) more years to really understand what is happening.”

What do you say to that Mike?  It’s all just a gov hype, right ?

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Posted: 05 July 2017 10:28 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 24 ]
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Citizenschallenge-v.3 - 05 July 2017 08:15 PM
DougC - 05 July 2017 07:11 PM

spamline

Is that a new good luck chant / charm ?

fill me in   hmmm

Sometimes if you add line it lets you past the spamblock… and no it’s not a good luck charm, it’s a curse.

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Posted: 05 July 2017 10:50 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 25 ]
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Citizenschallenge-v.3 - 05 July 2017 08:19 PM
DougC - 05 July 2017 07:11 PM

https:// scied.ucar.edu/carbon-dioxide-absorbs-and-re-emits-infrared-radiation

That’s pretty cool, just a space will do it. 

This has been understood for a very long time,
the only people who truly “don’t get it” are professional idiots who in many cases are paid very well to keep asking,
“what the heck could be going on, we need to study this for (N) more years to really understand what is happening.”

What do you say to that Mike?  It’s all just a gov hype, right ?

That’s the insane thing about climate change denial, it claims global warming is a fraud created by just a few people, when the opposite is the case.

This science was worked out well before fossil fuel use was a political hot potato, there was very little fossil fuels being burned when the original science was done.

It’s goes way back to the late 1600s when it was realized that based on the science of radiation of heat then being discovered that the Earth was warmer than it should have been then about 100 years later Joseph Fourier worked out by how much but didn’t identify why. That took another quarter of a century when individual elements and molecules were starting to be identified and how they interacted in the natural world. John Tyndall showed how carbon dioxide and water vapour impeded the transmission of infrared or heat as it is more commonly called.

Using these principles and thermodynamics and more Svante Arrhenius went to the laborious task of calculating by hand what would happen if you doubled the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the science was already confident enough then to do that. His results are still consistent and within the margin of error of today’s latest calculations using theory and technology that didn’t even exist then.

If the theory of carbon dioxide being the main persistent component of the Earth’s greenhouse effect was inaccurate the science would have fallen apart a long time ago. Instead the data and confidence keep getting more and more certain of the role that carbon dioxide plays in moderating the global climate. Take it away and the Earth will cool, add it and it will warm. It’s not a coincidence that as we’ve added hundreds of billions of tons of carbon dioxide to the air the Earth has warmed, it’s entirely consistent with what the science being done centuries ago was already telling us.

None of these scientists had any idea of how political the issue would become in the future and were only concerned with doing the best science possible which they did.

There never was a conspiracy and the science of the role carbon dioxide plays in climate is as sound as it gets.

It doesn’t matter how much money is spent to deny this or how many times deniers like Yohe chant, ” we still don’t know, we need more time, it’s the volcanoes, ice cores, blah, blah blah,.”

If Yohe wasn’t a denier he would have stopped this insanity a long time ago he has been proven wrong so many times. Each time he reloads and comes back with a slightly different direction, but it is all still the same attack on the valid science using nothing but claims of doubt that have never existed since these principles were first discovered. A long, long time ago.

Intellectually climate change denial is stuck back in the Middle Ages when they still believed in Succubi and Succubuses and other fairy tales like that.

Yohe comes across so irrational on this - as do all deniers - because they are engaging in denying reality itself.

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Posted: 06 July 2017 05:45 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 26 ]
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Yohe, you gonna take that?

DougC inexplicably missed the very super duper important point I’m fishing for here.
He’s going to kick himself, because I’m pretty sure he knows.

But, you Mike and Mr. Big Mouth who started this (but don’t possess the intellectual integrity to back up his empty words), I bet not.

Still, I’m going to hold my cards a bit longer, besides gotta run off.

[ Edited: 06 July 2017 06:00 AM by Citizenschallenge-v.3 ]
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Posted: 06 July 2017 08:22 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 27 ]
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Citizenschallenge-v.3 - 06 July 2017 05:45 AM

DougC inexplicably missed the very super duper important point I’m fishing for here.
He’s going to kick himself, because I’m pretty sure he knows.

 

This isn’t a riddle.

There is the extremely well founded science on the role carbon dioxide plays in moderating the Earth’s climate and the profound danger we all face by altering it the rate we are now.

And the fact that those who would be most directly affected by actually mitigating that disaster by a phasing out of fossil fuels have funded and created an extensive attack on the valid science to prevent a phasing out of fossil fuels.

It’s not a complex equation, it’s just one that not enough people have taken the time to work out yet.

I’m not competing with Mike Yohe or anyone on this, we are all facing the consequences of creating changes that if taken far enough will create some of the most hostile conditions on the Earth seen for millions of years.

The science says we are replicating the changes that massive flood basalts cause. Those same flood basalts are associated with climate change that has wiped out most life on Earth.

https://skepticalscience.com/Lee-commentary-on-Burgess-et-al-PNAS-Permian-Dating.html

Playing the same kind of games as Yohe and thinking that is going to balance things out is just as irrational as he is.

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Posted: 06 July 2017 06:36 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 28 ]
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Sorry Doug, don’t mean to get your goat but it certainly is a riddle, something so fundamentally well researched, yet most don’t even seem to know about it.  Most don’t know that everything is secondary to the fundamental understanding of how greenhouse gases behave in the atmosphere.  Where that information came from is very important.

What you left out was the:

Cambridge Research Lab at, Hanscom AFB Atmospheric Studies.

The following comes from a blog post I made a while back:

In this exercise I’ve combed through the Air Force Cambridge Research Lab’s official history, and pulled out what seem to me highlights of their atmospheric research.  It’s all frustratingly vague, no hyperlinks here, still it is the official USAF record and offers some tantalizing hints to early Air Force Atmospheric Studies. 

Keep in mind this research took a century’s worth of increasing fundamental understanding and evolved it into a thorough understanding of our atmosphere, its components and their physical properties and behavior within our atmosphere’s real environment. 

I can be certain of this, even if I’m not an expert, because of all the functioning modern marvels that would have been impossible without that understanding being correct!  Not to mention the insanity of thinking such fundamental nature can be hoaxed away, when thousands are studying it.

I share the following quotes in the hope some may find it a useful tool for digging up more information about early atmospheric studies

(Incidentally, such atmospheric research wasn’t confined to the USA, Australia, USSR and others, were also solving these fundamental ‘mysteries’ in order to get on with achieving mastery over weaponry, which they certainly achieved.  Interestingly, the geophysical understanding developed independently by each nation, totally agreed with each other.  Funny that.)

Chronology From the Cambridge Field Station to the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory 1945 - 1985
Air Force Geohysics Laboratory, Hanscom Air Force Base
Bedford, Massachusetts, USA

http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a164501.pdf

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Posted: 06 July 2017 06:38 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 29 ]
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March 1947 -  The Air Material Command established an Atmospheric Laboratory in the Engineering Division of Watson Laboratories in Red Bank, New Jersey.

June 5, 1947 -  First Army Air Forces research balloon launched.

February 1948 -  The Atmospheric Laboratory at Watson Lab was redesigned Lab Geophysical Research Division - new mission plan was written up.

May 26, 1950 -  First successful experiment launched by AFCRL on an Aerobee rocket took measurements of the solar constant.

April 6, 1951 -  The Upper Air Research Observatory was established, located at Sacramento Peak, New Mexico.

April 6, 1951 -  Air Research and Development Command (ARDC) became operational

August 1, 1951 -  ARDC takes jurisdiction of Hanscom Field - Cambridge Research Center becomes landlord of Hanscom Field.

Christian Science Monitor “Probing Earth’s Secrets”-  June 28, 1951
7 article feature on the work of the Geophysics Research Division

September 1957 -  The Photochemistry Laboratory created artificial airglow through the use of sodium released at 88,000’

Thermal Radiation Laboratory and the Photochemistry Laboratory

May 27, 1959 -  The original seven-inch sphere was launched on a rocket to measure atmospheric density.

July 1960 -  Project Firefly got underway, using chemical releases to explore upper atmosphere properties.

November 1960   -  AFCRL (Air Force Cambridge Research Lab.) initiated a program of laser research using a ruby laser oscillator.

February 23, 1961 -  ARCRL made the first direct measurements of atmospheric density between 70 and 130 miles altitude.

November 1961 -  Four-year research effort to demonstrate the feasibility of long-range, air-ground VHF ionospheric scatter communications was completed.

March 1962 -  The Arcas-Robin rocketsonde system for high-altitude meteorological soundings went into operations.

Spring-Summer 1962 - Project Fish Bowl “high altitude nuclear test observations… Aircraft support consisted of four KC-135’s, three for studying thermal and optical emissions, and one for measuring atmospheric and ionospheric effects.
Marked first time that a Michelson interferometer was operated successfully on a aircraft.

December 1962 -  A C-130 aircraft was specifically instrumented by the University of California’s Visibility Laboratory for AFCRL program in atmospheric visibility.

The Storm Radar Data Processor tested successfully for use in displaying wind intensities within tornadoes at various altitude.

January 1963 -  AFCRL started an Ozone Network to measure vertical ozone distribution over North America.

AFCRL placed in operation a shock tube for measuring the absolute spectral line Intensities of elements forming the sun and stars.

October 31 1963 -  The final launch of Project Firefly took place from Eglin Air Force Base, Florida.  In this extensive series of rocket flights begun in the summer of 1960, chemical releases were utilized to study various properties of the atmosphere.  Dense electron clouds formed by chemical releases created an artificial ionosphere for the transmission of VHF radio signals. Chemical trails also served as tracers for measuring winds, temperatures, and densities.

An AFCRL rocket-borne quadrupole mass spectrometer made the first measurements of the ion and neutral composition of the D-region, which open the way to a new understanding of this layer of the atmosphere.

December 1963 -  Automatic Picture Transmission (APT) camera system went into operation on TIROS VIII satellite.  By automatically rectifying and digitizing satellite cloud pictures, the system greatly speeded up their processing.

A C-130 aircraft instrumented for cloud physics research.

January 1964 -  AFCRL placed its newly developed laser spectrograph in operation.

Summer 1964 -  Warm cloud and fog studies (project Cat Feet) started at Otis Air Force Base.

January 1965 -  AFCRL successfully aimed pulsed laser beam to a reflective satellite (LARGO, S-66) and then captured the beam’s reflection on a photographic plate, marking the debut of satellite laser geodesy.

January 1965 -  Series of ballon flights began which measured moisture concentrations in the stratosphere.

Summer 1965 -  A new 6.6 meter ultraviolet vacuum spectrograph was installed at AFCRL for studies of the molecular structure of atmospheric gases.

November 1965 -  ARCRL assumed responsibility for the operation of NASA’s Wallops Island facility.  The radars were used for observations of atmospheric conditions associated with clear air turbulence.

March 30 , 1965 -  The OVI-5 satellite launched on this date measured radiation across the spectrum from the ultraviolet to the far infrared (0.2 -30 microns).

Winter 1966 -  AFCRL’s U-2 aircraft used for high-altitude meteorological observations since the late 1950’s was withdrawn for another mission.

May, 1967 -  The reinstrumentation of on of AFCRL’s KC-135’s as a fully-equipped flying infrared laboratory was completed

July 27, 1967 -  The Air Force satellite OVI-86 was launched.  It carried an AFCRL interferometer with a thermoelectrically cooled detector to permit more sensitive infrared measurements.

March, 1968 -  reorganization - Upper Atmosphere Physics Laboratory is renamed the Aeronomy Laboratory

August 1968 -  Rocket-borne experiments were launched from Brazil to measure the latitude variation in meteor flux.  The program used new techniques to overcome background contamination.

November 1968 -  A compilation of a complete set of atmospheric absorption line parameters was begun at AFCRL.

1969 -  First applications of the Fourier Fast Transform Techniques to Michelson interferometric spectroscopy, reducing computer time by two orders of magnitude.

Summer 1970 -  AFCRL closed its Haven Acres site for measurements of small-scale meteorological phenomena - new site opened at Donaldson, Minnesota, in 1971.

October 1970 -  A new balloon-borne gas laser measured the size distribution of aerosols at high altitude.

January 31, 1971 -  AFCRL’s Optical/Infrared Flying Laboratory made radiometric and spectral measurements of the plume of the Apollo 14 rocket booster during launch (repeated with Apollo 15)

December, 1971 -  A chemical decoy system to protect aircraft from heat-seeking missiles was flight-tested.

An initial version of the optical/infrared (OPTIR) computer code was developed.  It was designed to estimate the effects of nuclear detonations on optical/infrared detections systems.

1971 -  The report, “Earth Sciences Applied to Military Use of Terrain” was published… among topics discussed: Multi-spectral photography and thermal infrared imaging procedures.

October 16, 1972 -  The Satellite Meteorology Branch received the first pictures from the NOAA-2 satellite.  The combination of infrared and visual images transmitted permitted significant advance in satellite assessment of cloud cove.

Summer, 1973 -  Joint AFCRL/English experiments conducted to study turbulent transport of momentum and heat throughout the atmospheric boundary layer.

December, 1973 -  AFCRL developed a cloud-free, light-of-sight model to assist the development of weapons systems using optical, infrared, and laser sensors

January, 1974 -  The Optical Physics Division published a report on atmospheric transmittance for carbon dioxide, hydrogen fluoride and deuterium fluoride laser systems.

July, 1974 -  Stratospheric Environment Project launched.  Its goal was to provide data needed by the Air Force in order to write environmental impact statements for the operations of the B-1 and F-15 aircraft.  { If nothing else it shows that all layers of the atmosphere were thoroughly studied.  This data is real, pretending there’s some profound flaws in their understanding is nothing less than a bias driven disconnect from physical reality and human abilities.}

September 1974 -  Three rocket probes from the Woomera Range in Australia extended the measurements of the infrared sky background (the HI-STAR Program) to the Southern Hemisphere.

November 1974 -  The Air Force announced Realignment and Reduction Actions.  As part of these Action, the Air Force directed that the geophysics research then being conducted at the Cambridge Research Laboratories (AFCRL) be transferred to Kirtland Air Force Base, New Mexico.

November, 1975 - The NASA Atmospheric Explorer (AE-E) satellite was launched.  It carried an AFCRL-designed spectrometer composed of 24 individual collimating grating monochrometers.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
... and the list goes on.  I’ll end this little exercise in 1975, at page 65 of 90, since the really interesting fundamental understanding happened during this earlier period - everything else has been built upon them accurately nailing down that fundamental understanding.

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Posted: 06 July 2017 06:39 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 30 ]
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Above quotes taken from:
From the Cambridge Field Station to the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory
Chronology, 1945 - 1985
Air Force Geohysics Laboratory, Hanscom Air Force Base
Bedford, Massachusetts, USA
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a164501.pdf
__________________________________________________________

Behold:

NIST ‘Combs’ the Atmosphere to Measure Greenhouse Gases
From NIST Tech Beat: October 29, 2014
http://www.nist.gov/pml/div686/20141029_greenhouse_comb.cfm
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
http://www.modtran5.com
MODTRAN is an atmospheric radiative transfer model developed by Spectral Sciences Inc. and the US Air Force Research Laboratory.  It has been extensively validated and serves as a standard atmospheric band model for the remote sensing community.
http://www.spectral.com/MODTRAN.shtml

This page looks like a fun tool, for those who have the understanding.
http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/modtran/
And those of us who don’t, aren’t in any position to second guess the experts, cut it out already.

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