The hallmark of a great scientist is the ability to ask great questions. Questions who’s pursuit leads to meaningful progress towards understanding.
When it comes to our country’s contentious manmade global warming discussion,
it also comes down to how serious one is about asking meaningful questions that allow for meaningful constructive answers
I was told to read this recent article by Judith Curry regarding Hurricane Harvey. I did as requested and was baffled, what was I was supposed to find interesting in it?
Other than watching Judith’s outrageously biased perspective manipulate facts into fantasy. Which is thing worth studying. So with no further ado, lets take a look.
Hurricane Harvey: long-range forecasts
Posted on August 27, 2017
by Judith Curry
“The 12 year drought of major hurricane landfalls in the U.S. is over, with catastrophic impacts in Texas.
Predictions of Hurricane Harvey illustrate the realization of extended- and long-range hurricane forecasts.
This blog post analyzes the forecasts of Hurricane Harvey made by my company Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN),
and also by the National Hurricane Center. …”
CC - Curry does what she promises, but it’s basically a ginned up professorial review of how the models and forecasts unfolded, nothing particularly insightful.
The take-away message, forecasting has improved a great deal and we need to continue improving it.
White bread, nothing nourishing.
But then her true colors show
“Harvey in context
I’m sure you won’t be surprised to hear people blaming Harvey on global warming. How unusual was Harvey?
Well, it will definitely be in the record books for ending the 12 year drought of major hurricanes striking the U.S.”
Here she presents a list of Cat 4-5 landfalling hurricanes by
Phil Klotzbach, the list is based on wind speed and barometric pressure. Like a gymnastics judge who only looks at an athlete’s legs to the exclusion of the rest of her body.
Curry: “This list reminds us how awful things were. Apart from the horrendous 2004/2005 years, we have been pretty lucky in recent decades.
Anyone blaming Harvey on global warming doesn’t have a leg to stand on.”
Curry seems to think that Wind and Pressure intensity is all we need know. On this list Harvey Ranks tied for 14th place. Judith what about damage inflicted?
Then she continues:
Curry: “Harvey will be in the record books for almost unbelievable amounts of rainfall
(the final tally is not in yet; unfortunately it will still be raining in TX for several more days, with potential doubling of the amount that has already fallen).
While there was a large amount of water vapor ingested into Harvey, the huge amounts of rain are associated with Harvey’s stalled movement,
while still close enough to the Gulf to continue to suck in moisture.”
How can such an “acclaimed” climate expert in good conscience leave out the Jet Stream connection
which explains why Hurricane Harvey stalled and did that loop, (as predicted by the experts)?
Climate Change in Our Time: How Slower Jet Streams Make for Weird Weather by Kelsey Simpkins
It’s a fact: climate change made Hurricane Harvey more deadly by Michael E Mann