Considering hurricanes science and tracking
Posted: 03 September 2017 10:50 PM   [ Ignore ]
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Title was dated, and I’ll want to add more stories as this one unfolds. cheese


September 10,

11:10 AM EDT Sun morning of Sept, 10th
Location: 25.0°N 81.5°W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 933 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tthis guy’s worth listening to, sticks to the facts.
Paul Beckwith
Track Superstorm Irma in Real-Time: Tutorial (Sept 7th
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQlGj5pHJVk
Tornadoes Galore in Florida, spinning off Superstorm Irma
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9GYivvuJis

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

878 mb Storm Off North Florida — The Model Forecast for Irma that no one Wants to See Happen
SEPTEMBER 3, 2017
https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/03/878-mb-storm-off-north-florida-the-model-forecast-for-irma-that-no-one-wants-to-see-happen/


As the United States struggles to recover from severe damage inflicted by one hurricane made far worse by climate change,
another powerful storm is brewing over the hotter than normal waters of the tropical North Atlantic.

As of the 5 PM Atlantic Standard Time statement from the National Hurricane Center, Irma was positioned about 1,100 miles east of the
Leeward Islands in the central tropical Atlantic. The storm hosted a small circulation, packing 110 mph winds and a minimum central pressure of 973 mb.
Over the next few days, according to the Hurricane Center, Irma is presently expected to reach major hurricane status with 130 mph maximum sustained winds. ...

Looking beyond the official forecast, some of the our best long range model runs are putting together some seriously scary predictions for Irma.
By next week, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows Irma as a 878 mb monster hurricane looming about 300 miles off Florida.
878 mb would represent the lowest pressures ever recorded in a hurricane in the Atlantic (The present strongest Atlantic storm was Wilma at 882 mb.
The devastating Labor Day Hurricane hit 892 mb.). And it would almost certainly represent the strongest storm in our records ever to venture so far North.
878 mb roughly corresponds with maximum sustained winds in excess of 170 mph and possibly as high as 200 mph or more.
And we’ve never seen something like that threatening the Central Atlantic U.S. East Coast in all of the modern era. ...

This long range model scenario is not, however, an official forecast. It’s just what the GFS atmospheric computer models are presently spitting out.
And such long range predictions from a single model, no matter how reliable, should be taken with at least a pinch of salt.

That said, we should certainly, as the NHC recommends, keep our eyes on Irma and keep our response plans ready.


Links to:

The National Hurricane Center - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Earth Nullschool - https://earth.nullschool.net/

Tropical Tidbits - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

List of Most Intense Tropical Cyclones

Now we shall see how it unfolds.

[ Edited: 06 October 2017 08:30 PM by Citizenschallenge-v.3 ]
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Posted: 04 September 2017 07:36 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
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Monday morning

The National Hurricane Center Is A Trusted Source As Worrisome Hurricane Irma Looms
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/09/04/the-national-hurricane-center-is-a-trusted-source-as-worrisome-hurricane-irma-looms/#38b3d67253d0

Marshall Shepherd

... All of this made me wonder how the non-meteorologically attentive public (people like my mother or barber) can stay focused on a clear signal
with such overload of information. The National Hurricane Center is a trusted source that I wanted to highlight on this Labor Day as Hurricane Irma grabs the news cycle.

However, it is prudent to provide an update on Irma. Hurricane Irma is a grave threat to residents in the Caribbean region and looks to be an equally
worrisome threat for the contiguous United States. Irma is a category 3 hurricane and just to the east of Leeward Islands where hurricane watches have been issued.
The latest 5-day forecast (above) is ominous, and I have distilled some important points from the 5:00 am AST NHC forecast discussion,

the global models have been trending toward quickly lifting the trough out over New England and eastern Canada on days 4 and 5,
with the subtropical ridge building westward toward Florida. As a result, it’s becoming increasingly likely that Irma would maintain a west-northwestward
heading on days 3 through 5, and the track guidance shifted significantly westward on this cycle during that period.
Remarkably, the track models are very tightly clustered through day 5, which increases the confidence in the westward shift of the latest NHC forecast.

As the National Hurricane Center notes, it is too early to know the specific “where and when” of downstream impacts on the U.S. mainland.
However, the statement about models being clustered indicates that there is growing consensus on how meteorological patterns are setting up to steer the storm. ...

Here is the part contrarian souls, and god knows way the hell too many GOPiers will ignore, but that rational folks need to know and share. 

Ok, let’s get back to National Hurricane Center (NHC) “101”. The NHC is actually a part of the National Weather Service (NWS).
When I tweeted my thoughts on sifting through “hurricane information overload,” NWS Storm Prediction Center meteorologist Roger Edwards responded,
“If more and more of us direct to the sole official forecast source (NHC), the info asymptotically approaches consistency.” There is certainly value in
multiple messaging from different sources and colleagues so do not miss what I am saying.
However, when you have people posting fake hurricane tracks or articles about category 7 hurricanes, Roger’s point is well-taken. NHC’s website points out,

NHC is a component of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) located at Florida International University in Miami, Florida.
The NHC mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts,
and analyses of hazardous tropical weather and by increasing understanding of these hazards. The NHC vision is to be America’s calm, clear,
and trusted voice in the eye of the storm and, with its partners, enable communities to be safe from tropical weather threats. ...

The Trump bunch and others of that persuasion want us to distrust everyone of expertise and ‘authority’ that’s an insane way to move into tomorrow.
Then look at the absolutist scheisters they put into positions of authority. 
Or the absolutely transparent fraudulent rationalizations they toss out.
Heck or all the important positions apparently being left unfilled.
Heart wrenching, but apparently there’s nothing we want to do about it, because we could, but that would require real effort and communication among folks.

Stay tuned, the hurricane season is just getting into its prime, and we got a president that can not see beyond his own ego’s neediness.

Hurricane drought my ass.  Idiot fools and so f’n many of them.  downer

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Posted: 04 September 2017 11:07 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
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Following projections, perhaps those models are better than some think

Hurricane Irma strengthens to Category 4, ‘increasing chance’ could affect Florida: NHC
http://abcnews.go.com/International/hurricane-irma-strengthens-closes-caribbean/story?id=49608171

Or for a fascinating look at the weather check out
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-51.04,1.28,376

Play with it a little.  Click EARTH for the menu bar to appear and disappear.  To figure out abbreviations hold cursor over them.
Apparently there’s another wave train marching across the ocean, right behind Irma.

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Posted: 05 September 2017 08:01 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
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Speaking of Irma, and scientific understanding,
here’s a little tough love education from Paul Beckwith the educator who won’t pull punches.

Published on Sep 4, 2017
The US & European Weather Models are both forecasting a strike on the US from Hurricane Irma. I teach you how to find important factors like ocean surface temperatures along the storm path, jet streams that can direct, block, slow, or speed up the hurricane, and thus let us find out how long the storm may stick around. I also show you where to find real-time instantaneous expert views on the progression of Irma. Will Irma be more like Katrina, Sandy or Superstorm Harvey? How has climate change monkeyed with our Jet Streams???

Will Irma be a Superstorm Like Harvey? Tutorial 1/2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAkRxW3qwBY

Will Irma be a Superstorm Like Harvey? Tutorial 2/2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EUaOa3dzcs

ps. It’s up to category 5, but is projected to drop back to four as it rolls past the islands.

How is it that climate scientists have been able to so accurately predict it’s movement so far.  Amazing really. Ain’t it?
But the show ain’t over yet ...

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Posted: 06 September 2017 07:33 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]
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It looks as though early modeling didn’t catch the full potential of Irma.

The horror is while the headlines are screaming ‘most powerful hurricane ever’ - it’s actually just an introduction to the new normal as we continue heating our oceans and atmosphere.

120029_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone

Another horror show is unwinding, while certain malicious morons with zero integrity or scruples continue trying to play head games with the simple facts.
Oh and while Jose is lining up behind Irma,  while a now named Katia is following in Harvey’s path

http://www.kptv.com/story/36298825/tropical-storm-katia-forms-in-the-gulf-of-mexico

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Posted: 06 September 2017 07:39 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]
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It’s not every year, but it’s looking like another one of those years,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B20W25O5Pg

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Posted: 07 September 2017 08:51 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]
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The sad truth is that Irma is only an epic event against the backdrop of human history.
It is absolutely not epic in our new globally warmed environment, it is what we have to expect, not every year, but damned regularly.

Just How Strong Is Hurricane Irma?
Here’s how Irma compares with Katrina, Patricia, Haiyan and other record holders
By Mark Fischetti on September 6, 2017

Hurricane Irma (at posting time):
Category: 5
Peak winds: 185 mph
Lowest atmospheric pressure: 914 millibars
Greatest diameter: 420 miles

North Atlantic’s Biggest Beasts
Peak winds (sustained for one minute)
Allen (1980): 190 mph
Irma (2017): 185
Wilma (2005): 185
Gilbert (1988): 185
Katrina (2005): 175

Lowest atmospheric pressure (lower is stronger)
Wilma: 882 millibars
Gilbert: 888
Katrina: 902
Typical pressure at sea level: 1013

Most rainfall in U.S. (Atlantic and Pacific)
Hiki (1950, Hawaii): 52.0 inches
Harvey (2017, Texas): 51.8 inches
Amelia (1978, Texas): 48.0 inches

Source:  NOAA
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/just-how-strong-is-hurricane-irma/

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Posted: 07 September 2017 10:01 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]
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Science does not work.  Donald Trump fired it.

He is working on a time machine to strangle it before birth.

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Physics is Phutile
Fiziks is Fundamental
Since 9/11 Physics has been History

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Posted: 07 September 2017 10:05 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 8 ]
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hehe

Kudos to Florida, gas price gouging hasn’t gotten too bad.
http://www.miamigasprices.com

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Posted: 10 September 2017 08:38 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 9 ]
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https://earth.nullschool.net

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Posted: 06 October 2017 08:23 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 10 ]
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Oh yeah, I started this thread about serious science so I may as well add on this first class talk I listened to this evening.
Be the first on your block,

Climate scientist Kerry Emanuel describes physics behind expected increase in storm strength due to climate change.
Climate State - Published on Oct 6, 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWP-Sc8DYh4

Kerry Emanuel: 2017 Hurricanes a taste of Future
http://news.mit.edu/2017/kerry-emanuel-hurricanes-are-taste-future-0921

[ Edited: 14 October 2017 09:15 PM by Citizenschallenge-v.3 ]
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Posted: 14 October 2017 09:59 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 11 ]
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UK weather: Met Office issues severe weather alert as Hurricane Ophelia approaches

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Posted: 14 October 2017 10:11 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 12 ]
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F’n Ireland - can you believe it? 
I sure can. 
Warm up a closed global heat and distribution engine and it will have
significant cascading consequences - that manmade god and/or dogmatic faith can’t do a damn thing about.

Except for keeping oneself out of harms way - but we tossed those opportunities away in the 70s, 80s, 90s,
Continued to pretend nothing enormous was happening in the 00s, 10s.
Hang on you can bet all you own on it will continue to get worse, the new normal is in actuality a horrifying trajectory -
and we have a bunch of self-obsessed sociopathic oligarchs calling the shots - while the citizens of the world’s greatest democracy are allowing
their electoral influence to be stripped away from them piece by piece with barely a whimper

HURRICANE Ophelia has been upgraded to an almost unprecedented Category 3 storm as it slowly makes its way towards the UK mainland.

By WILL KIRBY
PUBLISHED: 17:34, Sat, Oct 14, 2017


... Hurricane Ophelia has become the sixth major hurricane of the 2017 season after it was upgraded to a Category 3 storm.

Storms of this strength are extremely rare and Ophelia’s current location is the farthest east a major Atlantic hurricane has ever been seen.

If the storm were to hit Britain at its current strength, it would be among the most powerful weather systems ever to hit the UK mainland.

While Ophelia is expected to slow down by the time it hits the UK, the Met Office has issued severe weather alerts and warned there could be potential power cuts, disruption to road and rail networks, and damage to buildings. ...

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Posted: 14 October 2017 10:18 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 13 ]
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Here’s a more interesting article
http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/12/world/hurricane-ophelia-ireland/index.html
satellite.jpg

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Posted: 14 October 2017 06:27 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 14 ]
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While rare, it is not unprecedented to have post-tropical storms reach the British Isles. The post-tropical remnants of Hurricane Gordon moved over Ireland and Northern Ireland in 2006 with winds of 65 mph, leaving more than 120,000 people without power.

How many were there before 2000?

psik

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Posted: 14 October 2017 09:12 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 15 ]
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10/10

psikeyhackr - 14 October 2017 06:27 PM

While rare, it is not unprecedented to have post-tropical storms reach the British Isles. The post-tropical remnants of Hurricane Gordon moved over Ireland and Northern Ireland in 2006 with winds of 65 mph, leaving more than 120,000 people without power.

How many were there before 2000?

psik

?

Hurricane Debbie (1961)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961)

Only 15 hurricanes have passed within 200 nautical miles of the Azores since 1851,
according to NOAA’s historical hurricane database.
All of those occurred in August or September, except for Hurricane Fran in October 1973 and Hurricane Alex in January 2016,
which made landfall shortly after weakening to a tropical storm.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2017-10-11-tropical-storm-ophelia-hurricane-azores

10 Hurricanes in 10 Weeks: With Ophelia, a 124-Year-Old Record is Matched
By MAGGIE ASTOR OCT. 11, 2017
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/11/climate/hurricane-ophelia.html

Ophelia Will Be the 10th Straight Atlantic Tropical Storm to Become a Hurricane
By Brian K Sullivan October 11, 2017
Ophelia will be the 10th straight Atlantic tropical storm to become a hurricane, a milestone last reached in 1893,
said Phil Klotzbach, a storm researcher at Colorado State University in Fort Collins.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-11/ophelia-to-tie-a-124-year-gee-wiz-atlantic-hurricane-record

“I am not quite sure what to make of it,” Klotzbach said. “It is a ‘gee-whiz’ record.”

Yeah, gee whiz what could it mean? 
Perhaps cascading consequences of warming up our global heat and moisture distribution engine?
What would Sherlock Holmes say?

Incidentally,

September 8, 2017
Surely you’re joking Dr. Klotzbach, no hurricane global warming connection?
http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2017/09/klotzbach-was-that-willful-misdirection.html

September 10, 2017
Phil Klotzbach’s response to Citizenschallenge Examined - The Map vs. Territory Problem
http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2017/09/klotzbach-response-to-citizenschallenge.html

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