I’m looking forward to seeing the Sun again, life under catastrophic dirty brown smoke filled skies is disgusting, we need to start suing and criminally charging the people behind climate change denial, enough of this insanity.
Funny that, or not.
Just last night I heard Phil Klotzbach expert on hurricane prediction being interviewed on NPR All Things Consider,
His few paragraphs deserve some scrutiny for their utter disconnected nonsense and implied reassurances.
Knocked me right out of another project I was diligently working on - but In managed defined my complaint
in light of other dialogues here at CFI I think this is worth sharing
Some might find it interesting.
There ought to be a law.
Surely you’re joking Dr. Klotzbach, no hurricane global warming connection?
Or, ‘Did Dr. Klotzbach willfully misrepresent geophysical facts?’
After finishing my previous post I sent Drs. Trenberth, Francis, Mann an email letting them know about my blog post.
I appreciate that I have a bit of in-your-face about my writing and have offended where none was intended, so this morning I was surprised and gratified that all three responded with valuable thoughts and links to papers that would help round out my understanding of their disagreement. I would have liked to reproduce the email string, but it was a private dialogue, though I was given permission to write about it. I was able to spent much of the rest of day reading through their various links in preparation for writing that post.
But, then came the evening’s news and Phil Klotzbach blindsided me with a response to a question which sounded like it came straight from a Trump Administration talking head, rather than a serious scientist.
His response goes way beyond the Map vs. Territory Problem, and raises questions about political bias coloring a trusted expert’s opinion to the point of willful deception. Specifically his glib dismissal of global warming’s influence on hurricanes is in defiance of basic geophysical laws and the people’s need to know!
(At 2:30) NPR asks:” Does climate change have anything to do with either the intensity of the storms or the frequency of the storms as we are experiencing them this season?”
Phil Klotzbach: “You know I mean the Atlantic actually the last years was below normal for hurricane activity and actually September’s of 2013, 13, 15, 16 were all very quiet. Obviously this is a far cry from that, this has been an incredibly active last few weeks, but historically September is the most active month of the season.
“When it comes to climate changes impacts on the storms though, most theoretical models really don’t see any change in the frequency, perhaps even going down a little bit. They say maybe the storms will get slightly more intense. But I look at the observations, I don’t do much theoretical modeling and in the observations it’s just really too hard to say.”
Powerful Storms Raise Questions About The Science Of Hurricanes
Heard on All Things Considered - September 7, 2017
NPR’s Robert Siegel talks with Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University, about the science of hurricanes and what makes Hurricane Irma so unusual.
At it’s most innocent we have an example of something I’ve already mentioned, a people desperately clinging to dreams of yesterday’s normal,
like a child desperately clinging to her mother as they’re being inexorably torn apart for all time.
Unfortunately, what we refuse to comprehend will harm, nay destroy all we’ve come to love about this world.
Klotzbach’s first paragraph reveals a sadly one dimensional scorekeeper’s mentality that does nothing to help inform people about our situation.
Our global heat and moisture distribution engine has many cycles, last decade the oceans were absorbing great quantities of heat,
now some of that heat is being returned with a vengeance, so it goes.
Taking childish comfort in a few years of no landfall hurricanes not only shows a blind eye to our climate system’s oscillations -
but also human and society’s concerns which play out on decadal time scales.
Then by focusing his answer purely on September and hurricane numbers he hides the real story from an audience
who have a right to know the unvarnished truth. For an overview of why Klotzbach’s complacency is wrong and misleading:
Why the ‘major-hurricane drought’ is the most overblown statistic in meteorology
By Jason Samenow - Washington Post - October 24, 2016
The science behind the U.S.’s strange hurricane ‘drought’ — and its sudden end
By Chris Mooney - Washington Post - September 7, 2017
Klotzbach’s second paragraph,
“When it comes to climate changes impacts on the storms though, most theoretical models really don’t see any change in the frequency, perhaps even going down a little bit. They say maybe the storms will get slightly more intense.”
This is deception through misdirection though statistics and losing sight of the beast.
Step back and please consider,
Earth is a global heat and moisture distribution engine, it is a virtually closed system powered by the sun.
The atmosphere that encloses and seals in our climate engine also insulates Earth from frigid outer space.
That insulation’s “R value” is regulated by so-called greenhouse gases, which humanity has been adding into our atmosphere at unimaginable rates, so much so that greenhouse gas levels have been significantly increased. Inevitably resulting in our global climate engine and Earth’s surface warming up. Simple unavoidable physics! As we are indeed witnessing.
Hurricanes are fueled by ocean heat, atmospheric heat and moisture and all three of those components are increasing. Their function is to distribute heat from the broiling equatorial zone to polar regions Increase the heat of that virtually closed system and how in physic’s name can the hurricanes that spawn within this warmer moister environment not possess the increased available energy?
Klotzbach “But I look at the observations, I don’t do much theoretical modeling and in the observations it’s just really too hard to say.”
Okay time to call in some authorities:
“Fundamental physical principles and observed weather trends mean we already know some of the answers - and we have for a long time.
Hurricanes get their energy from warm ocean waters, and the ocean are warming because of the human-caused buildup of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, primarily from the burning of coal, oil and gas. The strongest hurricanes have gotten stronger because of global warming. Over the past two years, we have witnessed the most intense hurricanes on record for the globe, both hemispheres, the Pacific and now, with Irma, the Atlantic.
We also know that warmer air holds more moisture, and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has increased because of human-induced global warming. We’ve measured this increase, and it has been unequivocally attributed to human-caused warming. That extra moisture causes heavier rainfall, which has also been observed and attributed to our influence on climate. We know that rainfall rate in hurricane are expected to increase in a warmer world, and now we’re living that reality. …”
“Irma and Harvey should kill any doubt that climate change is real”
We can’t afford to keep pretending. - September 7, 2017
Michael E. Mann, professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University
Susan J. Hassol, director of Climate Communication LLC.
Thomas C. Peterson, president of the Commission for Climatology of the World Meteorological Organization. He was formerly principal scientist at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center and National Centers for Environmental Information.
As I did more research on Phil Klotzbach I found this . . .
Yeah, then it get’s interesting.
Food for thought.