Understanding various drivers over paleoclimate time spans, Dr Alex Thomas, FGS
Posted: 07 October 2017 09:50 PM   [ Ignore ]
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This evening I was going through new climate science lectures and came across one that I need to share over here,
on account of our pal who’s still very confused about Milankovitch cycles and how they interact with Earth’s climate system today and in the past.
This scientist goes through the whole thing, including continental drift, and latest in the temperature record. Very fascinating talk, even if he’s not the best of public speakers, it’s still well worth the listen.

Since the science keeps moving forward there’s something new for everyone.

Understanding Climate Change
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fl08NSgQ5nc

Published on Jun 7, 2017
Some Paleoclimate Perspectives: Dr Alex Thomas

Lecturer in Chemical Oceanography
      School of Geosciences
http://www.research.ed.ac.uk/portal/en/persons/alex-thomas(9e7411e9-a515-4b02-87a5-612ff55373f9).html

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Posted: 14 October 2017 09:17 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
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Hmmm, interesting, Mike doesn’t seem to have any interest in this - though he’s fast to claim great uncertainties and confusion in this field.

Only way to learn better, is to learn better.

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Posted: 13 November 2017 08:45 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
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I see our pal MikeYohe deftly sidestepped this, even though he acts like he’s very interested in correct paleoclimate data.
What, no, say it ain’t so.  You say all he’s interesting in is Dr Mann bashing?  Banish the thought.  Mike do you hate Mann for political reasons?

Oh but let’s get back to the meat and potatoes because somewhere in there you finally got around to Dr. Lamm.

What do you know about Dr. Lamm and the work he was doing?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Description_of_the_Medieval_Warm_Period_and_Little_Ice_Age_in_IPCC_reports

440px-Ipcc7.1-mann-moberg-manley.png
IPCC FAR 1990 Figure 7.1.c (red) based on Lamb 1965 showing central England temperatures;
(green dashed line) central England temperatures to 2007 shown from Jones et al. 2009.[1]
(black) Also shown, MBH 1999 (global temperatures) 40 year average used in IPCC TAR 2001 (blue) and Moberg et al. 2005 low frequency signal .

1990 report (FAR)[edit]
See also: IPCC First Assessment Report

With the growth of interest in global warming in the 1980s came renewed interest in the past temperature record,
and the question of whether past times had been warmer or colder than “present”.
However, at that time available records were few. The discussion in chapter 7 “Observed climate variations and change” of the last 1000 years
(excluding the instrumental period) occupies less than a page.

A schematic (non-quantitative) curve was used to represent temperature variations over the last 1000 years in chapter 7.
The vertical temperature scale was labelled as “Temperature change (°C)” but no numerical labels were given;
it could be taken to imply that temperature variations of the MWP and LIA were each of the order of 0.5 °C from the temperature around 1900.

The section specifically states recent climate changes were in a range of probably less than 2 °C.
The 1990 report noted that it was not clear whether all the fluctuations indicated were truly global (p 202).
The graph had no clear source (but can be traced to publications by Hubert Lamb representing the Central England Temperature;
those publications have no explicit calibration against instrumental data,
[and are] just Lamb’s qualitative judgement and interpretation
of what he refers to as the ‘evidence’ [1]),
and disappeared from the 1992 supplementary report.

That is how the MWP was disappeared Mr. Yohe.

Please note, MBH 1999 does indeed show a MWP, if not as dramatic as some ignorant minds believe it should be.

Gotta follow the data dude.

[ Edited: 13 November 2017 08:47 PM by Citizenschallenge-v.3 ]
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Posted: 13 November 2017 08:52 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
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To further illustrate how vacuous your charges are; WHY ARE YOU OBSESSING OVER THAT PIONEERING GRAPH?

Why do ignore all this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large-scale_temperature_reconstructions_of_the_last_2,000_years

List of reconstructions in order of publication

Lamb 1965 “The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel”.
Groveman & Landsberg 1979 “Simulated northern hemisphere temperature departures 1579-1880”.
Jacoby & D’Arrigo 1989 “Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature since 1671 based on high-latitude tree-ring data from North America”.
Bradley & Jones 1993 “Little Ice Age summer temperature variations; their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends”.
Hughes & Diaz 1994 “Was there a ‘medieval warm period’, and if so, where and when?”.
Mann, Park & Bradley 1995 “Global interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuries”.
Overpeck et al. 1997 “Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries”.
Fisher 1997 “High resolution reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the last few centuries: using regional average tree ring, ice core and historical annual time series”.

Cited in IPCC TAR[edit]
The IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR WG1) of 2001 cited the following reconstructions supporting its conclusion that the 1990s was likely to have been the warmest Northern Hemisphere decade for 1,000 years:[2]

Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1998 “Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries”
Jones et al. 1998 “High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures”.
Pollack, Huang & Shen 1998 “Climate change record in subsurface temperatures: A global perspective”.
Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1999 “Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations”.
Briffa 2000 “Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees”.
Crowley & Lowery 2000 “How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period?”.
Cited in NRC Report (North Report)[edit]
North et al. 2006 highlighted six recent reconstructions, one of which was not cited in AR4:[3]

Huang, Pollack & Shen 2000 “Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures”

Cited in IPCC AR4[edit]
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 WG1) of 2007 cited the following reconstructions in support of its conclusion that the 20th century was likely to have been the warmest in the Northern Hemisphere for at least 1,300 years:[4]

Jones et al. (1998) [also in TAR], calibrated by Jones, Osborn & Briffa 2001 “The Evolution of Climate Over the Last Millennium”.
Mann, Bradley & Hughes (1999) [also in TAR]
Briffa (2000) [also in TAR], calibrated by Briffa, Osborn & Schweingruber 2004 “Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: a review”.
Crowley & Lowery 2000 “How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period?” [also in TAR]
Briffa et al. 2001 “Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree ring density network”.
Esper, Cook & Schweingruber 2002 “Low-Frequency Signals in Long Tree-Ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability”,
recalibrated by Cook, Esper & D’Arrigo 2004 “Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere land temperature variability over the past 1000 years”.
Mann & Jones 2003 “Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia.”
Pollack & Smerdon 2004 “Borehole climate reconstructions: Spatial structure and hemispheric averages”.
Oerlemans 2005 “Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier records”.
Rutherford et al. 2005 “Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions: Sensitivity to method, predictor network, target season, and target domain”.
Moberg et al. 2005 “Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data”.
D’Arrigo, Wilson & Jacoby 2006 “On the long-term context for late twentieth century warming”.
Osborn & Briffa 2006 “The spatial extent of 20th-century warmth in the context of the past 1200 years”.
Hegerl et al. 2006 “Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries”.

Cited in IPCC AR5[edit]
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 WG1) of 2013 cited the following reconstructions in support of its conclusion that for average annual Northern Hemisphere temperatures, “the period 1983–2012 was very likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 800 years (high confidence) and likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence)”:[5]

Pollack and Smerdon (2004) [also in AR4]
Moberg et al. (2005) [also in AR4]
D’Arrigo, Wilson & Jacoby (2006) [also in AR4]
Frank, Esper & Cook (2007) “Adjustment for proxy number and coherence in a large-scale temperature reconstruction”.
Hegerl et al. (2007) “Detection of human influence on a new, validated 1500–year temperature reconstruction”.
Juckes et al. 2007 “Millennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation”.
Loehle & McCulloch (2008) “Correction to: A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-tree ring proxies”.
Mann et al. 2008 “Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia”.
Mann et al. 2009 “Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly”.
Ljungqvist 2010 “A New Reconstruction of Temperature Variability in the Extra-Tropical Northern Hemisphere During the Last Two Millennia”.
Christiansen & Ljungqvist 2012 “The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: Reconstructions of low-frequency variability”.
Leclercq & Oerlemans (2012) “Global and Hemispheric temperature reconstruction from glacier length fluctuations”.
Shi et al. 2013 “Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies”.

Further reconstructions[edit]
Smith et al. 2006 “Reconstructing hemispheric-scale climates from multiple stalagmite records”.
Lee, Zwiers & Tsao 2008 “Evaluation of proxy-based millennial reconstruction methods”.
Huang, Pollack & Shen 2008 “A late Quaternary climate reconstruction based on borehole heat flux data, borehole temperature data, and the instrumental record”
Kaufman et al. 2009 “Recent warming reverses long-term arctic cooling”.
Tingley & Huybers 2010a “A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time”.
Christiansen & Ljungqvist 2011 “Reconstruction of the Extratropical NH Mean Temperature over the Last Millennium with a Method that Preserves Low-Frequency Variability”.
Ljungqvist et al. 2012 “Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries”.
Marcott et al. 2013 “A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years”
PAGES 2k Consortium 2013 (78 researchers, corresponding author Darrell S. Kaufman) “Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia”

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Posted: 13 November 2017 08:54 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy

https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/068.htm

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Posted: 14 November 2017 08:16 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]
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Citizenschallenge-v.3 - 13 November 2017 08:52 PM

To further illustrate how vacuous your charges are; WHY ARE YOU OBSESSING OVER THAT PIONEERING GRAPH?

Why do ignore all this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large-scale_temperature_reconstructions_of_the_last_2,000_years

List of reconstructions in order of publication

Lamb 1965 “The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel”.
Groveman & Landsberg 1979 “Simulated northern hemisphere temperature departures 1579-1880”.
Jacoby & D’Arrigo 1989 “Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature since 1671 based on high-latitude tree-ring data from North America”.
Bradley & Jones 1993 “Little Ice Age summer temperature variations; their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends”.
Hughes & Diaz 1994 “Was there a ‘medieval warm period’, and if so, where and when?”.
Mann, Park & Bradley 1995 “Global interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuries”.
Overpeck et al. 1997 “Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries”.
Fisher 1997 “High resolution reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the last few centuries: using regional average tree ring, ice core and historical annual time series”.

Cited in IPCC TAR[edit]
The IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR WG1) of 2001 cited the following reconstructions supporting its conclusion that the 1990s was likely to have been the warmest Northern Hemisphere decade for 1,000 years:[2]

Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1998 “Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries”
Jones et al. 1998 “High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures”.
Pollack, Huang & Shen 1998 “Climate change record in subsurface temperatures: A global perspective”.
Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1999 “Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations”.
Briffa 2000 “Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees”.
Crowley & Lowery 2000 “How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period?”.
Cited in NRC Report (North Report)[edit]
North et al. 2006 highlighted six recent reconstructions, one of which was not cited in AR4:[3]

Huang, Pollack & Shen 2000 “Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures”

Cited in IPCC AR4[edit]
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 WG1) of 2007 cited the following reconstructions in support of its conclusion that the 20th century was likely to have been the warmest in the Northern Hemisphere for at least 1,300 years:[4]

Jones et al. (1998) [also in TAR], calibrated by Jones, Osborn & Briffa 2001 “The Evolution of Climate Over the Last Millennium”.
Mann, Bradley & Hughes (1999) [also in TAR]
Briffa (2000) [also in TAR], calibrated by Briffa, Osborn & Schweingruber 2004 “Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: a review”.
Crowley & Lowery 2000 “How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period?” [also in TAR]
Briffa et al. 2001 “Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree ring density network”.
Esper, Cook & Schweingruber 2002 “Low-Frequency Signals in Long Tree-Ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability”,
recalibrated by Cook, Esper & D’Arrigo 2004 “Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere land temperature variability over the past 1000 years”.
Mann & Jones 2003 “Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia.”
Pollack & Smerdon 2004 “Borehole climate reconstructions: Spatial structure and hemispheric averages”.
Oerlemans 2005 “Extracting a climate signal from 169 glacier records”.
Rutherford et al. 2005 “Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions: Sensitivity to method, predictor network, target season, and target domain”.
Moberg et al. 2005 “Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data”.
D’Arrigo, Wilson & Jacoby 2006 “On the long-term context for late twentieth century warming”.
Osborn & Briffa 2006 “The spatial extent of 20th-century warmth in the context of the past 1200 years”.
Hegerl et al. 2006 “Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries”.

Cited in IPCC AR5[edit]
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 WG1) of 2013 cited the following reconstructions in support of its conclusion that for average annual Northern Hemisphere temperatures, “the period 1983–2012 was very likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 800 years (high confidence) and likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence)”:[5]

Pollack and Smerdon (2004) [also in AR4]
Moberg et al. (2005) [also in AR4]
D’Arrigo, Wilson & Jacoby (2006) [also in AR4]
Frank, Esper & Cook (2007) “Adjustment for proxy number and coherence in a large-scale temperature reconstruction”.
Hegerl et al. (2007) “Detection of human influence on a new, validated 1500–year temperature reconstruction”.
Juckes et al. 2007 “Millennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation”.
Loehle & McCulloch (2008) “Correction to: A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-tree ring proxies”.
Mann et al. 2008 “Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia”.
Mann et al. 2009 “Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly”.
Ljungqvist 2010 “A New Reconstruction of Temperature Variability in the Extra-Tropical Northern Hemisphere During the Last Two Millennia”.
Christiansen & Ljungqvist 2012 “The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: Reconstructions of low-frequency variability”.
Leclercq & Oerlemans (2012) “Global and Hemispheric temperature reconstruction from glacier length fluctuations”.
Shi et al. 2013 “Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies”.

Further reconstructions[edit]
Smith et al. 2006 “Reconstructing hemispheric-scale climates from multiple stalagmite records”.
Lee, Zwiers & Tsao 2008 “Evaluation of proxy-based millennial reconstruction methods”.
Huang, Pollack & Shen 2008 “A late Quaternary climate reconstruction based on borehole heat flux data, borehole temperature data, and the instrumental record”
Kaufman et al. 2009 “Recent warming reverses long-term arctic cooling”.
Tingley & Huybers 2010a “A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time”.
Christiansen & Ljungqvist 2011 “Reconstruction of the Extratropical NH Mean Temperature over the Last Millennium with a Method that Preserves Low-Frequency Variability”.
Ljungqvist et al. 2012 “Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries”.
Marcott et al. 2013 “A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years”
PAGES 2k Consortium 2013 (78 researchers, corresponding author Darrell S. Kaufman) “Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia”

 
Simple, your following list is not on the subject matter that I was debating. Show me one of those items that have had books written about the reports claiming fraud. Show me one of those items that is in several lawsuits claiming fraud. Let me spell it out for you. The graphs were no good. They were only use a very short time. You can keep claiming they are correct and good. But you are trying to ride a dead horse. They have been criticized in magazines and reports. Yet they are the foundation for the frame work of a new global warming policy that once implemented would last for many decades costing you and me extra taxes of $2,400.00 per year or more with no real science showing that any good would come as far as fixing the climate. At this point it is nothing more than a ploy to move the wealth of this nation overseas and give it away. That happened three times last century. We need to learn to stop doing that. We basically financed WWII for Germany with the Dawes and Young Bonds and paid the debt for WWI.

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Posted: 14 November 2017 09:09 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]
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MikeYohe - 14 November 2017 08:16 AM

Simple, your following list is not on the subject matter that I was debating.

Mike, can you please explain in a clear succinct manner what the hell you were/are debating???

Do you know how science works?
Do you appreciate that science builds on lessons learned?
Do you believe that pioneering scientific work in 1998 or 1999 is supposed to stand unrefined for decades?

Do you understand that in science “correct” has error bars built around it?

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Posted: 16 November 2017 07:07 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]
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Citizenschallenge-v.3 - 14 November 2017 09:09 AM
MikeYohe - 14 November 2017 08:16 AM

Simple, your following list is not on the subject matter that I was debating.

Mike, can you please explain in a clear succinct manner what the hell you were/are debating???

Do you know how science works?
Do you appreciate that science builds on lessons learned?
Do you believe that pioneering scientific work in 1998 or 1999 is supposed to stand unrefined for decades?

Do you understand that in science “correct” has error bars built around it?

For the record, MikeYohe appears unwilling to help clarify.
It’s worth noting because it’s more support for my contention that adding confusion to the dialogue is Yohe’s only interest when it comes to understanding climate science.

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