Most accurate climate models predict greatest warming - Patrick T. Brown & Ken Caldeira
Posted: 09 December 2017 04:48 PM   [ Ignore ]
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Here’s a recent paper that looks at climate models in critical detail.
It’s a good reality check considering the utter nonsense some claim about climate models.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget
Posted on November 29, 2017 by Patrick Brown
We have a paper out in Nature titled “Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget”.

The Carnegie press release can be found here and Coverage from the Washington Post can be found here.

A video abstract summarizing the study is below. A video abstract summarizing the study is below. ...
https://patricktbrown.org/2017/11/29/greater-future-global-warming-inferred-from-earths-recent-energy-budget

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget
Patrick T. Brown & Ken Caldeira
Nature 552, 45–50 (07 December 2017)
doi:10.1038/nature24672
https: //www.nature.com/articles/nature24672

Abstract
Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios.

Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming.

When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general.

In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (−1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

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