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Do Climate Models “Running Hot” Falsify GCMs?  The devil is in the details.
Posted: 12 February 2018 11:31 AM   [ Ignore ]
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Are the models “running too hot”?
Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming?
ZEKE HAUSFATHER -  October 5, 2017
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming


Recent media headlines have again discussed the issue of whether climate models are overly sensitive to greenhouse gases. These headlines have misinterpreted a study by Millar et al. which was discussing carbon budgets to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

A recent study by Medhaug et al. analysed the issue of how the models have performed against recent observations at length and largely reconciled the issue. An overly simplistic comparison of simulated global temperatures and observations might suggest that the models were warming too much, but this would be wrong for a number of reasons.

In the Medhaug et al. paper they show the range of models (blue shading in figure with median in light blue), compared with the HadCRUT4 observations and their estimated uncertainty (orange shading with light orange line). There are a number of well understood reasons why the light orange line might not follow the light blue line, namely: radiative forcings, variability, observational biases and choice of reference period.

nature22315-f5.jpg
...

Zeke Hausfather covers research in climate science and energy with a US focus. Zeke has masters degrees in environmental science from Yale University and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, and is completing a PhD in climate science at University of California, Berkeley. He has spent the past 10 years working as a data scientist and entrepreneur in the cleantech sector.

How have past climate models fared?
While climate model projections of the past benefit from knowledge of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, volcanic eruptions and other radiative forcings affecting the Earth’s climate, casting forward into the future is understandably more uncertain. Climate models can be evaluated both on their ability to hindcast past temperatures and forecast future ones. ...

In the examples below, climate model projections published between 1973 and 2013 are compared with observed temperatures from five different organizations. The models used in the projections vary in complexity, from simple energy balance models to fully-coupled Earth System Models. ...
Screen-Shot-2017-10-05-at-16.49.21.png
Conclusion
Climate models published since 1973 have generally been quite skillful in projecting future warming. While some were too low and some too high, they all show outcomes reasonably close to what has actually occurred, especially when discrepancies between predicted and actual CO2 concentrations and other climate forcings are taken into account.

Models are far from perfect and will continue to be improved over time. They also show a fairly large range of future warming that cannot easily be narrowed using just the changes in climate that we have observed.

Nevertheless, the close match between projected and observed warming since 1970 suggests that estimates of future warming may prove similarly accurate.

Here we should all be up front with our own expectations and biases - Mike Yohe and allies seem to demand >99% accuracy (97% ain’t good enough), before they’ll allow themselves to acknowledge the obvious trend (that does not indicating glacial conditions, don’t they know.) -

I’ll admit to possessing an Earth Centric Bias - namely, I’ve spent my life learning about our natural world and how it evolved to the amazing cornucopia humanity was born into.  I care about truth and honesty and I believe Earth’s systems are more authoritative than people’s avarice driven mind games.

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Posted: 12 February 2018 11:41 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
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About that devil,

Are climate models running hot or observations running cold?
Victor Venema
http://variable-variability.blogspot.com/2015/09/models-and-observations.html

... The point is that you cannot look at data without a model, at least a model in your head.
Some people may not be aware of their model, but models and observations always go hand in had.
Either without the other is nothing.

The naivete so often displayed at WUWT & Co. that you only need to look at the data is completely unscientific,
especially when it is in all agony their cherry picked miniature part of the data. ...

Why I am writing this?
What is left of “global warming has stopped” or “don’t you know warming has paused?”
is that models predicted more warming than we see in the observations.
Or as a mitigation sceptic would say “the models are running hot”.

This difference is not big, this year we will probably get a temperature that fits to the mean of the projections,
but we also have an El Nino year, thus we would expect the temperature to be on the high side this year, which it is not. ...

cowtan.png
(Looks like pretty substantial warming one way or the other!)

If there is such a discrepancy, the naive British empiricist might say:
    “the models are running hot”,

but the other two options are:
    “the observations are running cold” or
    “the comparison is not fair”.

And every one of these three options has an infinity of possibilities. As this series will show, there are many observations that suggest that the station temperature “observations are running cold”. This is just one of them. Then one has to weigh the evidence.

If there is any discrepancy a naive falsificationist may say that the theory is wrong. However, discrepancies always exist; most are stupid measurement errors. If a leaf does not fall to the ground, we do not immediately conclude that the theory of gravity is wrong. We start investigating. There is always the hope that a discrepancy can help to understand the problem better. It is from this better understanding that scientists conclude that the old theory was wrong. ...

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Posted: 12 February 2018 11:42 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
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Mike, I’m curious are you familiar with the concept of “weighing the evidence”?

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Posted: 16 February 2018 12:25 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
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Citizenschallenge-v.3 - 12 February 2018 11:42 AM

Mike, I’m curious are you familiar with the concept of “weighing the evidence”?

As Dr. Judith Curry observes, IPCC climate models are not fit (useful) for fundamentally altering our society, economy and energy systems. Tuning models, in both hindcast and “modified forecast,” does not assist one in deciding their validity. Accurate forecasts would be needed to justify spending trillions.
 

 

Paul Matthews says, climate change predictions — what went wrong?
 
Climate scientists have admitted their estimates of global warming were wrong. So, can we all chill out now? Not quite
 
As egg-on-face moments go, it was a double-yolker. Last week a group of climate scientists published a paper that admitted the estimates of global warming used for years to torture the world’s conscience and justify massive spending on non-carbon energy sources were, er, wrong.
Being wrong is not a criminal offence, especially in science, where in the long run almost everything turns out to be wrong, but the global warmers have adopted such a high-and-mighty tone to anyone who questions them that for sceptics this was pure joy.
 

I’ll let the experts weigh the evidence.  I’m nothing more than a concerned taxpayer.

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Posted: 16 February 2018 08:16 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]
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The yokes on you, you willful malicious idiot. 

You can find endless quotes from other malicious idiots, but i can find the science that buries all your bullshit.
But, then you have the perfect weapon to counter that, don’t you? 
You simply ignore it.
 
In denial and sticking to your story and you’re so absolutely sure of yourself there’s no need to learn anything else.  The stuff of totalitarian thinking.

Science by rhetorical handwaving is bs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLSZ6U_VyGk

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Posted: 16 February 2018 10:57 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]
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Citizenschallenge-v.3 - 16 February 2018 08:16 AM

The yokes on you, you willful malicious idiot. 

You can find endless quotes from other malicious idiots, but i can find the science that buries all your bullshit.
But, then you have the perfect weapon to counter that, don’t you? 
You simply ignore it.
 
In denial and sticking to your story and you’re so absolutely sure of yourself there’s no need to learn anything else.  The stuff of totalitarian thinking.

Science by rhetorical handwaving is bs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLSZ6U_VyGk

 
Your funny. You don’t have any science and you want me to find science that debunks your postings you pick out of tens of thousands of papers that have been paid for by the taxpayers. Which I think is possible if I wanted to. But, as in the past when I do, you just ignore the issue. I not going to waste my time. As anyone who has not been living in a box the last couple of decades knows your climate industry has been claiming a twenty-foot sea level rise by the end of the century. All the glaciers melted and the snow free Alps by 2014 or was that 2007? Was this not based upon the models? After the weather failed to follow the climate change industries predictions and the earth’s temperature went past the tipping point. The climate change industry blamed it on the climate models running hot. Is that not a fact? Then the climate change industry came out with new tipping point numbers and a new deadline date. They also lowered the sea level rise to between 20 inches and two-feet. Is that not a fact? Oh, I’m sorry, this is history and logic. The facts are you have accused me of not caring for the earth when you were posting all your science of how the sea levels were going to rise from 20 to 100 feet. You need to review your own data and find out what happened or lets us know if you still stand by those sea level rises. Then you told me that I was crazy for claiming the clouds and the sun cycles needed to use in the models. That while they did have some effect, it was so small of an effect that it really did not make a difference. Today, I don’t think you will say that. Maybe you became crazy too.

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Posted: 16 February 2018 11:02 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]
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The thinking is, that in these required and approved data sets is where the hot data results came from over the years. Thus, one only needs to look at who is in control of making up the requirements for the grants and requires certain data sets to be used. The results can be predicted before the testing by the data sets required to be used in the testing. Thus, a lot of taxpayer’s money and a lot of time could have been wasted by the people in control of requiring which data sets had to be used in a test. The data sets to be used in the grant tests that gave hot results constructively helped the Climate Change industry monetarily and politically. And that seems to have been going on to some degree for a long time. The fact that no convention ever took place to address this well-known problem shows major signs of the grant controllers being bias.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZN2jt2cCU4

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Posted: 16 February 2018 08:33 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]
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MikeYohe - 16 February 2018 11:02 AM

  http://www.youtube\com/watch?v qZN2jt2cCU4

You sure know how to pick them.
William+Happer+Desmog+Blog.png
Will Happer

http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/search?q=Will+Happer
May 8, 2016
Judge rules: Drs. Spencer, Lindzen, Happer are not credible expert witnesses!
____________________
Peabody coal’s contrarian scientist witnesses lose their court case
Peabody Energy brought contrarians Spencer, Happer, and Lindzen to testify on their behalf, but the judge wasn’t convinced by their case

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/may/02/peabody-coals-contrarian-scientist-witnesses-lose-their-court-case
John Abraham | May 2, 2016
____________________

https://www.desmogblog.com/william-happer

Trump’s potential science adviser William Happer: hanging around with conspiracy theorists
Graham Readfearn https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2017/feb/21/trumps-potential-science-adviser-william-happer-hanging-around-with-conspiracy-theorists

Happer has compared the “demonisation” of carbon dioxide to the “demonisation of poor Jews under Hitler” –
because a Nazi reference will always get you noticed. ...

Happer’s record of getting scientific papers published in leading journals on climate change science is at, or very close to, zero.
Simply, he knows a lot about some stuff, but he is not a climate scientist.

While he has a distinguished career as an atomic physicist, previously serving the administration of George HW Bush as a science director, the 77-year-old’s views on climate science are outnumbered by all the credible evidence, all the credible science agencies and are also being laughed at by the Earth’s thermometers and its melting ice sheets and glaciers. ...

If Happer is concerned about the reputation of science, then he’s picking some very odd places to hang around – that conference being one of them.

The Arizona gathering was organised by Freedom Force International – a group led by the famed conspiracy theorist G Edward Griffin. He fits right in with the booming culture of conspiracy that’s growing big audiences online.

Among many other things, Griffin has said there is “no such thing” as HIV and that human-caused climate change is a hoax. ...

Remembering Happer’s dislike of science being “for sale”, it’s noteworthy that his CO2 Coalition colleague Patrick Moore was paid last year by a major European coal lobby organisation to give a presentation in Strasbourg telling the audience we should “celebrate CO2”.

No doubt Happer would argue that money does not influence the views of people like Moore, though he does say that it influences actual climate scientists who get research grants from universities and governments. Go figure. ...

Trump’s likely science adviser calls climate scientists ‘glassy-eyed cult’
Hannah Devlin - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/15/trump-science-adviser-william-happer-climate-change-cult

Happer also supports a controversial crackdown on the freedom of federal agency scientists to speak out about their findings, arguing that mixed messages on issues such as whether butter or margarine is healthier, have led to people disregarding all public health information. ...

Unlike many of his scientific peers, Happer is in favour of contentious legislation aimed at reining in the ability of federal agency staff to hold press conferences, give television interviews and promote their findings on official websites.

The “Secret Science Reform Bill”, which is being pushed by the Texas Republican Lamar Smith, chairman of the House science, space and technology Committee, would require federal agencies to publish all the raw data underpinning any proposed regulations and for new findings to be scrutinised extensively by outside experts before being announced. However, critics view the bill as an attempt to strip federal agencies of autonomy and reduce their regulatory powers. ...  Holy fuk, every time I turn around, I find GOP is even more totalitarian then I imagined!

So that’s your authority figure Mike Yohe.  Should I be surprised.

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Posted: 17 February 2018 10:53 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 8 ]
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Citizenschallenge-v.3 - 16 February 2018 08:33 PM

Simply, he knows a lot about some stuff, but he is not a climate scientist.

Can you tell me some of the stuff he knows about?
You know if new science is proven wrong most of the time. And that is a fact. Then the only scientists that have not had wrong science are the political ones who are not really scientists. They just work with debatable issues. And where has that gotten us? Maybe another decade or two by your type of scientists and you will be able to make a prediction, you think! Want to try and post some climate change predictions today? Do you have enough science to get your feet wet?

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Posted: 17 February 2018 12:28 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 9 ]
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MikeYohe - 17 February 2018 10:53 AM
Citizenschallenge-v.3 - 16 February 2018 08:33 PM

Simply, he knows a lot about some stuff, but he is not a climate scientist.

Can you tell me some of the stuff he knows about?
You know if new science is proven wrong most of the time. And that is a fact. Then the only scientists that have not had wrong science are the political ones who are not really scientists. They just work with debatable issues. And where has that gotten us? Maybe another decade or two by your type of scientists and you will be able to make a prediction, you think! Want to try and post some climate change predictions today? Do you have enough science to get your feet wet?

Could you describe “type of scientist”, I’m unfamiliar with these typologies. Could you lay out some rules for science so I can see if you are following them?

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Posted: 17 February 2018 04:19 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 10 ]
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Sure, glad to. Science is proven facts. It can be changed by better proven facts. A scientist can write 400 scientific papers and not have one of them be proven correct over time. That doesn’t mean some of his papers didn’t make front cover of scientific journals and get a lot of news coverage. That also doesn’t mean he didn’t get a good teaching job and write several books on the subject. What it means is his work that was able to pass politically and the thinking of the movement at the time. But that does not mean his work was correct. Aether winds is a famous example. So far there must have been a million papers written about climate change and we have a million excuses why it is not working the way the papers explain. The question that is trying to be answered is really simple. HOW MUCH HEAT IS NATURAL AND HOW MUCH IS MANMADE. Or put another way. Create a baseline for climate change science. Emeritus Professor of Physics at Princeton University Will Happer explains why he thinks we are having this problem with the climate change baseline problem. Happer was not making any scientific predictions. And the first thing CC does is try to discredit him and his work. Therefore, I was working from the point of view that CC thinks that if scientists that have made mistakes then they are not good scientists. The way I view it is the only scientists in the world that have not made mistakes are still wet behind the ears. It is easy to criticize. So, I ask CC to make a prediction. I was curious which wet behind the ears scientists she was following. That’s where the “type of scientist” came from. She followed Michael Mann when he got his degree and wrote his first papers. That paper didn’t last a year before being changed. But after decades it is still in the courts in two countries and indirectly cost the taxpayers billions.   
 
Rules. Peer reviews must not be done by your friends. You must make your data available for peer review to all scientists.
 
Changes that are needed. I would personally like to see private industry have half the seats on the grant approval boards for taxpayer’s money.
 
One more that I really, really, really think would help. No more grants on related subjects until the baseline is complete.

[ Edited: 17 February 2018 04:21 PM by MikeYohe ]
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Posted: 18 February 2018 09:36 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 11 ]
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The problem with Will Happer is that he thinks his standing as a physicist makes it okay for him to misrepresent the fundamentals of climate science.
Another expert at science by the rhetoric of molesting and twisting facts and evidence and quotes from other scientists.

Basically Will Happer is another ossified liar for his extreme right wing views - ironically this one fine proud Cold Warrior is now in bed with a Russian Obligate Fraud. Disgusting how far the supposed adults in the room have fallen.

Admittedly, he’s got the scientific chops that lend him superficial credibility and allows him to spin a yarn that will fool anyone lacking critical thinking skills and who wants to be fooled about the science of AGW.

Even Princeton Makes Mistakes

Posted on 26 May 2011 by Chris Colose
https://www.skepticalscience.com/even-princeton-makes-mistakes.html

...Happer then throws in a few classical straw man attacks such as:

“CO2 levels have increased from about 280 ppm to 390 ppm over the past 150 years or so, and the earth has warmed by about 0.8 degree Celsius during that time. Therefore the warming is due to CO2. But correlation is not causation. Roosters crow every morning at sunrise, but that does not mean the rooster caused the sun to rise. The sun will still rise on Monday if you decide to have the rooster for Sunday dinner.”

This would, of course, be a perfectly valid counter-argument to would-be fallacious reasoning, yet it isn’t the reasoning any real scientist uses, and is therefore a smokescreen.  Naturally, the WUWT crowd has eaten it up without thinking twice.  The causative mechanism is the underlying radiative physics of how a CO2 molecule interacts with infrared light, and also a wide variety of indirect signatures of climate change induced by agents acting on the longwave part of the spectrum, such as stratospheric cooling or the radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere. 

Happer can’t resist throwing in a few outdated one-liners about the Vikings in a “green” Greenland, how CO2 lags temperatures in ice cores, and other boring punchlines that most skeptics don’t even bother with anymore.  He implies that Earth cooled by about 10 C during the Younger Dryas, but actually the YD was a time of relatively little global temperature change, even though a large area of the planet was actually being affected (see here).  There’s a whole list of other quick talking points about climategate, the hockey stick, etc that readers here will be well familiar with.  What is most surprising to me is that a distinguished physicist apparently has no original thoughts on the matter.

Happer’s reasoning is well out of line throughout his entire article, yet that doesn’t stop a Princeton physicist from declaring with such confidence that this CO2-induced global warming thing is all a sham.  Throughout the article he shows his unambiguous mission to confuse the reader, and his own ignorance concerning the physics of climate. He makes a number of serious accusations against a very large community, something which if unfounded (as it is surely is) should ruin the reputation of any serious scientist.  Indeed, for me at least, it has.  It is possible his own area of research is so far removed from climate that none of his colleagues will bother to care.

In short, even Princeton can make mistakes in who they decide should represent their department.

A Physicist and Possible Adviser to Trump Describes His Love of Science, and CO2
Brilliant and controversial, Dr. Will Happer of Princeton says being called a climate denier feels like being labeled a Nazi sympathizer.
by Andrew Revkin Feb. 15, 2017
https://www.propublica.org/article/a-physicist-and-possible-adviser-to-trump-describes-his-love-of-science-co2

I can understand the moral equivalence for sure! 
Happer probably wishes he had the charisma,
although his close friend the real climate science (who has a very dodgy history of tweaking his own satellite reading to along with his tax payers ‘gate-keeping’ philosophy rather than the science Spencer) does go around calling . . .

Creationist climate change skeptic Dr Roy Spencer has come up with a name for people who call him a ‘denier’ — ‘Nazis’. Graham Readfearn from DeSmogBlog reports.

PRINCE CHARLES is a “global warming Nazi” and so, apparently, is U.S. President Barack Obama.

That’s according to Dr. Roy Spencer, one of the world’s most often cited deniers of the risks of human-caused climate change.

In a blog post titled ‘Time to push back against the global warming Nazis’, Dr Spencer of the University of Alabama, Huntsville, wrote he had made a decision about anyone who used the term ‘denier’ to describe ... well ... deniers of the threats of human-caused climate change.

He’s going to call them ‘Global warming Nazis’.

Spencer wrote:

When politicians and scientists started calling people like me “deniers”, they crossed the line. They are still doing it.

They indirectly equate (1) the skeptics’ view that global warming is not necessarily all manmade nor a serious problem, with (2) the denial that the Nazi’s extermination of millions of Jews ever happened.

Too many of us for too long have ignored the repulsive, extremist nature of the comparison. It’s time to push back.

I’m now going to start calling these people “global warming Nazis”.

Deliberately misrepresenting the scientific understanding of climate sciences,
crosses the line and makes both criminals against humanity and sober science. 

Mike will shrug that off - but our next generations will not be as self-blinded as MikeYohe,
who himself comes from the dark side of Alt-Right disconnect from physical reality,
and who himself crosses over into extreme intellectual dishonesty, which in turn crosses over in criminality.

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Posted: 18 February 2018 09:37 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 12 ]
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Oh course, why be surprised that a liar president would choose a liar scientists to further his oligarch’s agenda.

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Posted: 18 February 2018 09:39 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 13 ]
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And one for the road, if anyone is curious about more details of Will Happer’s gross dishonesty.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/search.php?Search=Will+Happer&x=0&y=0

Blog posts matching the search Will Happer:

2017 in Review: looking back at 10 years of SkS and more
3 January 2018 by BaerbelW

2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #18
7 May 2017 by John Hartz

Evidence Squared #10: Debunking William Happer’s carbon cycle myth
2 May 2017 by John Cook

Trump has launched a blitzkrieg in the wars on science and Earth’s climate
28 March 2017 by dana1981

2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #9
4 March 2017 by John Hartz

Just who are these 300 ‘scientists’ telling Trump to burn the climate?
27 February 2017 by John Abraham

2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #8
25 February 2017 by John Hartz

2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #7
18 February 2017 by John Hartz

Climate change in 2016: the good, the bad, and the ugly
2 January 2017 by John Abraham

Coal made its best case against climate change, and lost
11 May 2016 by dana1981

Comparing models to the satellite datasets
9 May 2016 by Guest Author

Peabody coal’s contrarian scientist witnesses lose their court case
2 May 2016 by John Abraham

A striking resemblance between testimony for Peabody Coal and for Ted Cruz
20 January 2016 by John Abraham

Climate researcher Bart Strengers wins wager with climate sceptic Hans Labohm
28 January 2015 by Guest Author

2013 SkS Weekly Digest #20
19 May 2013 by John Hartz

Schmitt and Happer manufacture doubt
15 May 2013 by Dumb Scientist

2013 SkS Weekly News Roundup #19B
11 May 2013 by John Hartz

Ridley, Murdoch, and Lomborg Attempt to Greenwash Global Warming
16 January 2013 by dana1981

The Latest Pre-Bunked Denialist Letter in Lieu of Real Science
1 December 2012 by dana1981

Matt Ridley - Wired for Lukewarm Catastrophe
29 August 2012 by dana1981

2012 SkS Weekly Digest #34
27 August 2012 by John Hartz

Lindzen, Happer, and Cohen Wall Street Journal Rerun
22 August 2012 by dana1981

The Continuing Denial of the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
16 August 2012 by Andy Skuce

Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
12 July 2012 by dana1981

NASA Climate ‘Skeptics’ Respond with Science! Just Kidding.
12 April 2012 by dana1981

2012 SkS Weekly Digest #14
9 April 2012 by John Hartz

Yes Happer and Spencer, Global Warming Continues
3 April 2012 by dana1981

2012 SkS Weekly Digest #13
2 April 2012 by John Hartz

Still Going Down the Up Escalator
3 February 2012 by dana1981

The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction
31 January 2012 by dana1981

Clouds Over Peer Review
7 October 2011 by Captain Pithart

A new SkS resource: climate skeptics and their myths
18 August 2011 by John Cook

The Ridley Riddle Part One: The Red Queen
30 July 2011 by Andy Skuce

The Planetary Greenhouse Engine Revisited
15 June 2011 by Chris Colose

Even Princeton Makes Mistakes
26 May 2011 by Chris Colose

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Posted: 19 February 2018 09:55 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 14 ]
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MikeYohe - 17 February 2018 04:19 PM

Sure, glad to. Science is proven facts. It can be changed by better proven facts. A scientist can write 400 scientific papers and not have one of them be proven correct over time. That doesn’t mean some of his papers didn’t make front cover of scientific journals and get a lot of news coverage. That also doesn’t mean he didn’t get a good teaching job and write several books on the subject. What it means is his work that was able to pass politically and the thinking of the movement at the time. But that does not mean his work was correct. Aether winds is a famous example. So far there must have been a million papers written about climate change and we have a million excuses why it is not working the way the papers explain. The question that is trying to be answered is really simple. HOW MUCH HEAT IS NATURAL AND HOW MUCH IS MANMADE. Or put another way. Create a baseline for climate change science. Emeritus Professor of Physics at Princeton University Will Happer explains why he thinks we are having this problem with the climate change baseline problem. Happer was not making any scientific predictions. And the first thing CC does is try to discredit him and his work. Therefore, I was working from the point of view that CC thinks that if scientists that have made mistakes then they are not good scientists. The way I view it is the only scientists in the world that have not made mistakes are still wet behind the ears. It is easy to criticize. So, I ask CC to make a prediction. I was curious which wet behind the ears scientists she was following. That’s where the “type of scientist” came from. She followed Michael Mann when he got his degree and wrote his first papers. That paper didn’t last a year before being changed. But after decades it is still in the courts in two countries and indirectly cost the taxpayers billions.   
 
Rules. Peer reviews must not be done by your friends. You must make your data available for peer review to all scientists.
 
Changes that are needed. I would personally like to see private industry have half the seats on the grant approval boards for taxpayer’s money.
 
One more that I really, really, really think would help. No more grants on related subjects until the baseline is complete.

https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/965349850698207236

Follow this tweet to some real science. You almost started to answer the question, but you immediately switched to saying science is obscured by politics. That doesn’t answer the question. If they are two separate things, then you can define either one. You can show when someone is claiming science but actually doing politics. I don’t think you know how. That you just failed to explain that is why.

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Posted: 19 February 2018 09:40 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 15 ]
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Good site. But, science is science. CC is using consensual science. I was all for IPCC and the use of consensual science at first because of the time factor. We were being told that the CO2 was going to basically cause catastrophic changes to the earth in the matter of a decade.
 
What we were told was happening was that the CO2 was causing heat in a fraction of a second, over and over again. Which is proven to be true. And the CO2 could stay in the atmosphere up to a thousand years. Averaging around three-hundred years before it leaves the atmosphere. And that is also true. So, yesterday’s CO2 is still creating heat just like the CO2 that was put in the atmosphere in the 1970’s. The earth was going to have so much CO2 creating heat that we would reach a point that we would have a run-a-way heating scenario. And we would have no way to fix the problem.
 
We have past the date that we were to stop putting CO2 into the air. And all the scenarios that were supposed to happen on the way to hot-house earth was not happening.
 
Therefore, I did not want consensual science anymore. I wanted real science. And we don’t have it yet. For example, the sea level rise. By 2100, it was to rise from 20 to 100 feet. Today there is a lot of data out showing a rise of 8 to 20 feet. Your posting connection has from 1 to 8 feet. Our senior scientists are predicting 11 inches. The normal rise is 10 inches.
 
To answer your question that I am sure you are asking. Would I know science if it sat on me? Probably not. Therefore, I follow the money. There are law firms across America wanting to do class action climate change law suits for hundreds of millions of dollars. What is stopping them is that there is no science that can even prove Climate Change even exists past the point where the earth can take care of the problem. There are thousands of consensual scientists, just like there was in the Aether Winds. But no scientists that can stand on solid ground and prove Climate Change in the legal system that requires real science. That is one reason why the baseline is so important.

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